K.M. Chandrasekhar
PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA MODI exuded confidence while speaking on the ‘Motion of Thanks’ for the president’s address recently in Parliament. He said the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance would cross their past majorities, and that his party would win 370 seats of the likely NDA tally of 400. The miscalculations of the Congress and its inability to bring together the INDIA bloc could well presage a long period of uninterrupted BJP rule and the breakup of the Congress.
Back in 2004, I saw the massive ‘India Shining’ campaign of the Vajpayee government from the Alpine heights of Geneva, and its collapse. Of course, that campaign would pale into insignificance beside the gaudy G20 glitz, the sengol veneration and the opulent Ram Mandir. The election results will show whether the lowest quarter of our population is impressed by this chutzpah. But what next?
The home minister has already announced that the Citizenship (Amendment) Act will become a reality before the election. Aadhaar cards may have to come in two colours―one for the citizens and the other for the rest. Or else, a separate citizenship card may have to be introduced. The Uniform Civil Code may be introduced across the country, creating tension in some areas.
The delimitation of parliamentary constituencies will occur in 2026, based on the postponed 2021 census, resulting in a shift in political balance between states. The states that have faithfully followed policies initiated by the government for family planning will stand to lose political power. Once more, language issues may arise; there could be efforts to strengthen the use of Hindi, thus reducing the national presence of non-Hindi-speaking people.
New farm laws, which had to be hastily withdrawn on the cusp of the Uttar Pradesh elections, could be introduced. With the possible introduction of the ‘one nation, one election’ plan, there will be enough time to enforce farm laws without the nuisance of an intervening state election. The Samyukta Kisan Morcha, recognising this possibility, is once again at the borders of Delhi. The imposition of income tax on farmers may not occur as most of the wealthy farmers are in the Hindi heartland. Labour laws may not be changed across the country. Differential labour laws and their enforcement may benefit some states and handicap others. In education, rewriting history may gather pace and free thinking may be discouraged.
The second term of the Modi government was also marked by increased activism by governors and lieutenant governors in opposition-ruled states. This may increase in the third term, and new provisions could be introduced in the Constitution to give them more powers over elected sub-federal governments, as was done in the case of the Delhi Services Act.
The judiciary’s role has been changing, and recent judgments seem to treat the letter of the law as given. No new jurisprudence, as was created by the Bommai case and the Kesavananda Bharati case, may sprout to scrutinise new laws in the light of the spirit of the Constitution. The independence of the judiciary, particularly the [trial] courts, has been in doubt, and the Supreme Court has taken serious note of it.
Investigative and regulatory agencies have been given a free hand to wield the big stick against select corporations and individuals. The use of bulldozers to suppress agitations will probably continue in the northern states. The media have been largely brought to heel, and the outliers may be under threat in the next stretch. Control over social media and the telecom networks may grow. The westward tilt in foreign policy would continue, while Kautilya’s Mandala theory (the neighbour’s neighbour is your friend) may guide relations with neighbours.
The unitary elements of the Constitution have been gaining prominence. The flexibility given to states by the 14th Finance Commission by raising their share in allocable resources has been taken away by reducing the Central share in centrally-sponsored schemes. At the same time, centrally-sponsored schemes have multiplied, which are helpful to certain states, but not to others. Cesses and surcharges, which are not shared with states, have gone up in number and volume. The Centre and certain Central public sector undertakings have been borrowing freely from the markets, while putting constraints on the states. Financial stress of states, particularly some of them, has been growing, and a situation may arise when the use of Article 360 (invoking financial emergency), with the Centre taking over financial powers, may become inevitable.
There is little doubt that the economic policy of the government will be heavily tilted towards the corporates as it is now, with some sops to the very poor. The poor are grateful and will respond positively to a pittance while the rich grows richer and income inequality rises. The middle class has been largely ignored. While corporate tax rates were brought down by 10 per cent in October 2019, there has been no relief for the middle classes, which also labour under the burden of inflation, high fuel prices and job uncertainty. They will hope for a change in approach. The pressure on corporations to locate their new plants in certain states and to use corporate social responsibility funds for specified purposes may intensify.
Thus, we are moving swiftly towards a new concept of India. The economy will undoubtedly grow unless there are unanticipated financial shocks, as happened in 2008-2009 during the great recession and in 2019-2021 during the pandemic. Yet, the Indian economy is unlikely to deviate from the track set in 1991, and it has acquired the resilience to weather storms, slowly spread its wings, and scale new heights without the government’s support. The growth of infrastructure, unquestionably an outstanding contribution made by the Modi government, will further strengthen the development of Indian industry.
Will there be an opposition resurgence in the remaining few weeks before polls? “Coming together is a beginning, staying together is progress, and working together is success,” said Henry Ford. The opposition parties do not seem to have even started “coming together”.
The author is former Union cabinet secretary.