ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
INDIA STANDS AT the threshold of significant economic growth. By 2047, the country aims to transform into a $30 trillion economy, achieving the status of a developed nation and attaining energy independence. The nation’s GDP is projected to double from the current $3.6 trillion by 2030, and another 200 million people are expected to be added to the current 1.4 billion in the next three decades.
To support this growth and enhance the standard of living for its citizens, India is making substantial investments in energy, transportation and urban infrastructure. However, this transformation is unfolding against the backdrop of global climate change, necessitating sustainable, resilient and inclusive development strategies.
In 2021, India ranked as the 7th most vulnerable country to climate change and, in the same year, suffered losses of $159 billion due to extreme heat. As many as 17 of 20 Indians are vulnerable to extreme hydro-meteorological disasters. A disproportionate amount of this burden is borne by vulnerable communities―49 per cent of urban Indians live in informal settlements, with unequal access to basic services, decent work and safe, healthy environments. The annual monsoons, on which the country’s agrarian economy is largely dependent, have become unpredictable, impacting food production and nutritional security, especially of small and marginal land holders.
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS CLEAN ENERGY
More than 745 million people globally still lack access to electricity. At the same time, energy is responsible for 73 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Driven by falling renewable energy prices, rapid transformation in the energy technology landscape, and climate change considerations, India’s energy sector is undergoing a transition towards an increased reliance on renewable energy. World Resources Institute (WRI) India’s modelling estimates suggest that India’s energy demand will increase three- to fourfold by 2047. India’s commitment to ambitious and progressive targets, like meeting 50 per cent of its electricity requirements from renewable energy by 2030, is significant for the global fight against climate change.
The exponential growth in renewable energy, increased battery storage systems and green hydrogen production in future will allow us to decarbonise heavy industries producing aluminium, cement, steel and chemicals, and the transport sector. However, the transition is unlikely to be straightforward or linear.
A system-wide energy transition will require preventing lock-ins to fossil-dependent technologies, managing the transaction costs, and minimising the pressures on natural resources. Simultaneously, the transition will also be characterised by increased decentralisation of generation sources, digitalisation of processes and increased market operations.
THRIVING RESTORATION AND AGRICULTURE ECONOMY
Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns and extreme weather events like floods and droughts have burdened India’s food systems. From 2015 to 2021, India lost 33.9 Mha (million hectares) of cropped area to floods and 35 Mha to droughts, underscoring the urgent need to climate-proof its food production systems. Nearly 30 per cent (96.40 Mha) of India’s land is threatened by desertification, which is a critical issue as 70 per cent of rural households depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.
Sustainable agricultural practices such as agroforestry, multi-cropping, nutrient cycling for soil health, climate-resilient and traditional/indigenous crop varieties, soil health management, water management and renewable energy use can make Indian agriculture more sustainable and climate-smart. Crop diversification from rice and wheat to other crops like sorghum and millet, especially in low-yield areas, can improve nutritional quality and reduce inputs and emissions.
Initiatives such as planting native trees on farmlands (agroforestry), protecting or regenerating forests, focusing on watershed management, and promoting urban and peri-urban agriculture can address high urban food and nutrition demand and alleviate pressure on rural land and agriculture. An entrepreneurship-driven approach should also be considered to advance this agenda. The ‘Restoration Opportunities Atlas for India’ (developed by WRI) shows that over 100 million hectares of India’s total land offer a potential for forest protection and landscape restoration. This presents an opportunity as it can sequester three to 4.3 gigatons of above-ground carbon by 2040, while improving local livelihoods and incomes, securing resource rights, enhancing food security and nutrition for people in the country, as well as improving the flow of ecosystem services.
WELL-PLANNED, LOW-CARBON AND NATURE-FOCUSED CITIES
India is urbanising rapidly, with 34 per cent of its population living in urban areas as of 2018. This number is projected to rise to nearly 53 per cent by 2050. Cities contributed 63 per cent of India’s GDP in 2011, and this figure is expected to reach 75 per cent by 2030. Indian cities are already experiencing urban floods, cyclones, harsh winters, and oppressive heatwaves with increasing frequency and intensity. Beyond the loss of human lives, these events place severe strain on municipal infrastructure, livelihoods and the overall economic well-being of municipalities.
Several major national programmes are providing over $100 billion to India’s cities to enhance basic services such as clean water, solid waste management, sanitation and affordable housing, making them more resilient, sustainable, and inclusive. Additionally, India is investing close to $100 billion in improving public transport in cities.
Indian cities must employ effective planning to manage urban expansion strategically. This includes stronger financial management to ensure that national programme investments in infrastructure are well-designed, implemented effectively, and can help attract additional financing to address infrastructure gaps. Integrated land use and transport planning should be prioritised to maximise the value of large transport investments.
THE WAY FORWARD
Public awareness and engagement are key to driving behavioural change and garnering support for climate policies. Additionally, with a growing youth population, India will need to create nine million to 12 million jobs a year, both in urban and rural landscapes, while growing its economy. India’s low-carbon transition can create one million to three million jobs per year in electricity, manufacturing, construction and services, but potential workers will need skilling to work effectively in these sectors.
Enhancing disaster risk reduction efforts is critical for minimising the impact of climate-related disasters. This includes improving early warning systems, strengthening emergency response capabilities, and investing in disaster-resilient infrastructure. Community-based initiatives can also play a vital role in building local resilience and preparedness. Adaptation strategies are essential for managing the impacts of climate change and building resilience. India should develop comprehensive adaptation plans that address key vulnerabilities, such as water scarcity, extreme weather events and coastal erosion. These plans should involve stakeholders from various sectors and levels of government to ensure that adaptation measures are effective and inclusive.
A just, equitable and inclusive transition is essential for meeting India’s climate targets and fostering long-term sustainable development. Special attention must be given to vulnerable and marginalised communities to prevent the exacerbation of existing iniquities and to ensure that no group is left behind in the journey towards a sustainable, greener and more resilient future.
Views expressed by the author are personal.
Madhav Pai, CEO at WRI India