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I was in the Donbas region of Ukraine after the first 500 days of the full-scale Russian invasion that started on February 24, 2022. It has now been 500 days since I left Ukraine after witnessing the war firsthand (November 19 marked 1,000 days of the war). While on the frontline, I was concerned that I might get hit by a Russian drone, artillery fire or a sniper's bullet. I was particularly anxious at night while staying in hotels, where I could hear sirens blaring through the dark hours. I was most afraid during my stay at Hotel Sapphire in Kramatorsk, a town in eastern Ukraine. The town was regularly bombarded with missiles owing to its proximity to the frontline.
My nightmare came true almost a year after I left Ukraine. This August, Hotel Sapphire was hit by a Russian Iskander-M missile. The impact zone was the room I had stayed in. The missile attack killed Ryan Evans, a former British soldier who was escorting Reuters journalists as a safety adviser. And, the hotel was reduced to a rubble. Two months after I left, a Ukrainian soldier by the call sign ‘Panda’ from the 20th Separate Assault Brigade, who had escorted me to the frontline trenches near Velika Novosilka, was gravely injured in a Russian cluster bombing at the same location where I had spent hours with him. Panda sustained severe shrapnel injuries that disfigured his face and scarred his body. The beautiful church that caught my attention in Kurakhove, a small town I crossed while travelling from Kramatorsk to Velika Novosilka, is now surrounded by Russian forces on three sides. By the time you read this, Kurakhove most likely will have fallen into Russian hands.
What I feared while I was in Ukraine is slowly becoming a day-to-day reality across the country. At the beginning of the war, charged-up Ukrainian soldiers put up a strong resistance; they had just one goal―victory, which meant taking back the Ukrainian territory lost to Russia. Now, when I talk to soldiers, their fighting spirit remains the same, but losing friends and fellow fighters to the war has taken its toll, mentally.
Dr U.P.R. Menon, an Indian businessman who runs a pharmaceutical company in Kyiv, says, “Because women and children have left the country in big numbers, sales of products related to them have fallen. Due to the surplus donation of humanitarian drugs related to trauma, even that segment is also not doing well.” Hypertension, diabetic and psychiatric medicines are the only ones seeing any sales here, he adds. That is an indicator of the situation in Ukraine―there is still an exodus of people and mental health is a big issue because of the prolonged war.
Frontlines are increasingly becoming zones of drone warfare. Ukraine initially had the upper hand in using consumer and first-person view (FPV) drones to target Russian positions and reclaim occupied positions. Russia has since caught up with drone usage, and these new war tactics have made the frontline even more dangerous. According to Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, government-backed projects in Russia are now producing 4,000 drones per day, most of which are being used in the war against Ukraine. While it may seem like the war has reached a stalemate, it is more aggressive and brutal than ever before. With its aggressive push, Russia is losing more men than Ukraine, though.
Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region was seen as a major breakthrough this year, but Russia’s mobilisation of nearly 50,000 soldiers―confirmed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky―suggests that Russia is gaining the upper hand. Western sanctions have had little impact on Russia’s ability to fight. On the other hand, Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, which was widely seen as an effort to reduce Russian attacks on Ukraine and draw Russian forces towards Kursk to alleviate pressure on exhausted Ukrainian soldiers, has not worked as planned.
In fact, Russia is advancing towards the eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, and it is feared that the town will fall within days. Russia has also brought North Korean troops into the fight against Ukraine. According to the Pentagon, 10,000 North Korean troops are already in the Kursk region. The biggest challenge for Ukraine is to get manpower to fight the war and to match the Russian numbers.
New Zealand journalist Thomas Mutch, who is based in Ukraine, is one of the few foreign journalists who visited Kursk after Ukrainian troops took control. Mutch is blacklisted by Russia for illegally entering Russian territory. According to him, there are more military equipment and energetic Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk. “Elsewhere, soldiers are tired and they have lost a lot of friends,” he says. “They say they will be disappointed if this war does not end in victory for Ukraine.” Another journalist says he has never seen such a massive movement of military vehicles since the war started. This indicates that Ukraine has deployed its best fighters and most of its military equipment in the Kursk region. Though Russia was able to recapture a few villages, Sudzha town is still under Ukrainian control. Ukraine could use this occupation as a negotiation pawn if both parties sit down for peace talks.
With its increasing attacks, Russia is pushing Ukraine to its limits. On November 17, Russia launched 120 missiles and 90 drones across Ukraine, targeting the entire country in a massive, coordinated attack. During the winter months, Russia’s main target has been energy facilities. Ukraine’s largest energy company, DTEK, has seen its thermal power plants severely damaged in the attack, resulting in widespread blackouts.
In a surprise announcement, outgoing US President Joe Biden―heeding Ukraine’s months-long request―authorised the use of US long-range missiles like ATACMS to strike inside Russia. And, Ukraine has fired these missiles into Russia, probably realising that the situation may change once Donald Trump takes over in January. The use of US-made ATACMS will likely escalate the war. Ukraine has previously used long-range missile provided by the US to attack inside occupied Crimea. Until now, Ukraine was using homegrown drones to attack inside Russia. Naveen, a Haryana native who is fighting for Ukraine, and whom THE WEEK met along with another Indian fighter from Madhya Pradesh, says, “It doesn’t matter who becomes president of the United States; it will not affect our fighting spirit. I know Trump will be unpredictable, but we will fight until our death or until the end of the war.”
During a Zoom call with my contacts in Ukraine, my network was patchy. The issue was with my connection in Bengaluru. On the frontlines in Ukraine, there is no such issue, thanks to Elon Musk’s Starlink. When I was there, I used it to watch 4k videos. Having a fast and steady network in the war zone is crucial for Ukraine. Radio communication can be intercepted by the Russians, and so Ukrainians use Starlink to connect to FPV drones, communicate between units and in command centres. Now, with Musk potentially involved in Trump’s government, any decision Trump makes regarding funding or arms aid to Ukraine will affect the course of the war. If Musk switches off Starlink, it would be another disastrous situation for Ukraine. They will need months to establish a new communication channel.
This is the third harsh winter during which Ukrainian soldiers are defending the frontline. The change in seasons used to be a primary concern for fighters, but now, for the tired fighters, it is the change in governments of friendly countries that is more worrying.