In March 2018, popular Telugu actor and Jana Sena Party chief Pawan Kalyan sprung a surprise in Mangalagiri, in the Amaravati capital region. At a massive public meeting, he lambasted Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu. "Do you not know that your son is highly corrupt? What are you doing about it?" he asked. In the 2014 elections, the JSP had partnered with Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP). So the broadside was quite unexpected.
Now, weeks before the 2019 state and general elections, Mangalagiri is once again in the news. Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh, who is the IT minister and the party's general secretary, has chosen this assembly segment for his debut election. Interestingly, the state headquarters of the JSP is in the same region. Kalyan was expected to take on Lokesh, in light of his earlier remarks. But, neither did his party field a candidate there, nor is Kalyan criticising Lokesh nowadays. The CPI, which has a tie-up with the JSP, has fielded a candidate who had lost in the past. This pattern can be seen across the state. The politics of Andhra Pradesh has become a complex web of secret pacts and strange arrangements.
On paper, the ruling TDP, the main opposition party YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), the BJP and the Congress are contesting solo. The JSP has an alliance with CPI, CPI(M) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The situation on ground, however, is very different.
Naidu seems to be the architect of the biggest unofficial alliance of the season as the Congress and the JSP-left-BSP combine are inclined towards the TDP. Almost every move made by these parties is looked at suspiciously in the state, as if it is controlled by Naidu.
What seems to have strengthened this belief is the ticket distribution in these parties. Close to Mangalagiri is commercial hub Vijayawada, where the candidate of the JSP-left-BSP alliance was initially Chalasani Ajay Kumar of CPI. But, Kalyan unilaterally announced that JSP would be contesting this seat, and then nominated a lesser-known leader. This was allegedly done to help the TDP candidate, who belongs to the same community as the CPI candidate.
Former state minister and TDP leader Ghanta Srinivasa Rao, who is known to be close to Kalyan, has also had a say in matters. His close confidants and friends are reportedly contesting on Jana Sena tickets in Visakhapatnam and Nellore. At Narasapuram, where Kalyan’s brother, actor Naga Babu, is in the fray, the TDP changed the candidate at the last moment. Meanwhile, in various segments where senior TDP leaders are contesting, the Jana Sena is either fielding greenhorns or has left it to the BSP.
What is glaring is that Naidu and Kalyan have toned down their criticism of each other and have trained their guns on Jagan Reddy. But the two parties have not admitted that they have rekindled their romance. "We are contesting individually," said TDP spokesperson Lanka Dinakar. "The BJP and YSRCP are searching for reasons since they know they will be defeated. It is not us but YSRCP which is a B-team of BJP."
Reacting to the rumours, JSP spokesperson Hari Prasad said, "We have given tickets to newcomers and youngsters. These are the people who follow the ideology of Pawan Kalyan. We did not entertain rich candidates and instead gave chance to many poor candidates. It is not true that we are helping the TDP. We are criticising Jagan more because we feel YSRCP is a tougher opponent."
Some Congress leaders are also unhappy with the alleged secret pact. "The names that were decided by our local leadership were not okayed by the high command," said a young Congress leader, who requested anonymity. "They were replaced by those who would help the TDP. We can see that Chandrababu has a lot of influence on our party."
Political analysts say that Naidu's game plan is to split anti-incumbency votes and the Dalit and Kapu vote bank (which is the largest in AP) and ensure that YSRCP is not the lone beneficiary. Kalyan belongs to the Kapu community.
“In politics one plus [one] is never two. Statistically, what TDP is doing may look good, but practically, it is not that simple to benefit from it,” said Amarnath Kosuri, former member of the Press Council of India. “The anti-incumbency votes may split. The Kapu votes may go three ways between YSRCP, TDP and Jana Sena. But, the TDP may not get any new voters with this experiment. There is every chance that this can boomerang.”
There is another new entrant who seems to be on Naidu's side—K.A. Paul, a popular evangelist-turned-politician, who founded the Praja Shanthi Party. Paul now finds himself in the middle of an alleged conspiracy. His party will field 35 assembly candidates and four Lok Sabha candidates whose names are similar to those of the YSRCP candidates. Even the party's flag resembles that of the YSRCP. A worried YSRCP complained to the Election Commission, accusing Paul of helping Naidu split the YSRCP's votes by confusing voters. Paul denied the accusation.
On the other hand, Naidu has accused the BJP and the YSRCP of joining hands; Naidu is their common foe. The two parties seem to be restrained while criticising each other. But they do not admit to having a partnership. "YSRCP and BJP are completely different parties. We are a hindutva party, whereas they are more of a Christian party. How can we be together?” asked Buddha Chandrashekar, BJP spokesperson. "Chandrababu is a liar and he can do anything to win elections. But this time nobody can save him."