What’s cooking?: Captain Amarinder Singh | PTI
MILITARY JARGON was widely used to describe the situation Captain Amarinder Singh found himself in after the Congress asked him to step down as chief minister. His supporters criticised the party for changing its general so close to the polls. He said he was a soldier who did not want to quit the field before winning.
On the face of it, Amarinder’s declaration that he is willing to share seats with the BJP seems suicidal. The BJP is, unsurprisingly, unpopular in Punjab ever since the farmers started their protests. This combined with anti-incumbency and the perception that Amarinder has not delivered on promises make the combination look like a non-starter. However, his capacity to damage the prospects of other parties, especially the Congress, is acknowledged, and no one is taking him lightly.
Political observers have described Amarinder’s potential alignment with the BJP as a homecoming, given his consistent articulation of nationalistic sentiments. The BJP was prompt in welcoming the declaration. It is felt that while the saffron party would get the tallest leader in the state, the former chief minister would get an ally that would help him with resources and boots on the ground. The immediate impact of Amarinder launching his own party—which he named Punjab Lok Congress on November 2 when he finally resigned from the Congress—and launching a front that also includes breakaway Akali groups would be to turn the coming elections into a multi-polar contest.
Amarinder has indicated that he could tie up with the BJP if the issues on which the farming community is agitating are resolved. If the farmers’ issues do get resolved, the key players in the polls will have to rework their electoral strategy.
Amarinder, it is felt, could be looking to appeal to the urban Hindu voters. “My basic training is that of a soldier. I have been home minister of Punjab for ten years. Nobody wants a disturbed Punjab,” Amarinder said at a news conference. He is believed to enjoy some support among the Hindu trading classes. It is felt that there is some resentment among the Hindus over the Congress choosing not to appoint a Hindu chief minister in place of Amarinder, and the senior leader could be looking to tap into this sentiment.
According to a Punjab Congress leader, the party is concerned about the prospect of disgruntled leaders, especially those who will not get tickets for the coming elections, making a beeline for Amarinder’s party. Also, some farmer leaders could join his party if the farmers’ issues are resolved. Amarinder’s move prompted the Congress high command to hold back-to-back meetings with the state leadership to reach out to leaders known to be upset even as efforts were made to convince Amarinder to stay back. However, how much support Amarinder would be able to gain from within his parent party is debatable since his influence over the MLAs had decreased considerably.
“Amarinder Singh ji should have acted as our margdarshak. Joining hands with the BJP would mean joining the enemy camp,” said Punjab Minister Dr Raj Kumar Verka. He admitted that Amarinder leaving would be detrimental to both the former chief minister and the party.
Meanwhile, the initial dilly-dallying on part of Amarinder in announcing the name of his party is believed to be not so much on account of the leader awaiting clearance from the Election Commission as much as the difficulties associated with garnering adequate support. It is also felt that Amarinder is finding it extremely difficult to do a tightrope walk over the question of aligning with the BJP. Instead of an alliance, he now talks about a seat-sharing arrangement.
The new AICC in-charge of Punjab, Harish Chaudhary, has held meetings with party MLAs to gather feedback on what impact Amarinder could make, the changes that the Congress needs to make to build bridges with Hindus and how the party’s strategy would need to be reworked if the Centre is able to come to an agreement with farmers.
Pramod Kumar, director, Institute for Development and Communication, Chandigarh, said there was a big if attached to how far Amarinder would be able to make people forget the anti-incumbency feelings against him and their resentment with the BJP-ruled Centre. “This combination of Amarinder’s Congress and the BJP can only acquire the role of a mega-spoiler,” he said. “He may not be able to become a major stakeholder or a kingmaker. He would be heading a party of dropouts and disgruntled elements with no cohesive ideological position.”
It is felt that in close contests, Amarinder, even if he gets three to four per cent votes, could end up damaging the prospects of the Congress. However, there is also an assessment that he could end up harming the Congress’ rivals, too, as had happened in 2012. Manpreet Badal left the Akali Dal, went alone and ended up damaging the Congress. “If there are sections looking at the Akali Dal as an option, Amarinder could cut into those votes, too,” said Ashutosh Kumar, chair, department of political science, Panjab University.
Amarinder could also end up as a minor partner of the BJP and may not even be allowed to claim full credit for a potential resolution of the farmers’ issue. “An Amarinder-BJP combination will have no impact in the elections,” said Congress MLA Kuldeep Singh Vaid. “It is clear that the BJP has lost all credibility in Punjab. Amarinder Singh, too, is saddled with huge unpopularity.”
A lot of muckraking is already taking place, with Amarinder’s former colleagues trying to diminish his patriotic image by dragging into the discourse his friendship with Pakistani journalist Aroosa Alam—now being described as an ISI agent.
And while Amarinder has spoken about personal vindication, the people may not identify with it since they feel that he did not do much despite having had a good mandate. “Amarinder Singh failed miserably in the four-and-a-half years that he was chief minister,” said Harjot Singh Bains of the AAP. “It was for that reason that his own party showed him the door. Not a single Congress MLA supported him. He will end up as a B-team of the BJP.”