GOOD TIMING IS important in politics. And Captain Amarinder Singh, a veteran of many political battles, knows this well. In a calculated move ahead of announcing the formation of his new party and declaring that he was open to a seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP for the assembly elections due next year, Amarinder said that a resolution of farmers’ issues was in the offing.
The former Punjab chief minister set the tone for the eventual repeal of the three contentious farm laws, thereby opening the route for a tie-up between him and the BJP. After he was unceremoniously ousted as chief minister in September, Amarinder has had a bitter parting with the Congress. Having formed a new party, the Punjab Lok Congress, he is now all set to enter the electoral fray as a distinct force. But, Amarinder needs the BJP.
“Without an alliance with the BJP, he would cut a sorry figure. To launch a party and put in place a campaign, you need resources and vote mobilisers. It is not easy to put all this together at the age of 80. Amarinder is not Morarji Desai. He is very intelligent and a shrewd politician, but his physical fitness is not so good,” said Ashutosh Kumar, chair, department of political science at Panjab University.
Now that the farm laws have been repealed, the BJP can hope to find an entry point into the electoral arena, and Amarinder’s presence in the camp would allow it to project a tall Sikh leader with secular credentials. Amarinder and the BJP are seen as natural allies since they have been on the same page on issues of nationalism. And the main aim of the tie-up would be to appeal to Hindu voters in urban centres. Also, Amarinder could be used by the BJP as a campaigner in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, which also go to the polls early next year.
However, while Amarinder is bound to turn the elections into a multi-cornered contest, how effective he will be in winning seats remains doubtful. It is widely expected that he will play the role of a spoiler. And while he would want to damage the Congress’s prospects, his presence in the fray could end up spoiling the chances of its rivals, too. In close contests, if Amarinder’s outfit gets even 3 to 4 per cent votes, it could tilt the scales for other major players. The Shiromani Akali Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party could even feel the pinch if the votes against the Congress gets split on account of a new political formation.
“Amarinder carries the baggage of not having delivered in the four and a half years that he was chief minister,” said political scientist Harjeshwar Pal Singh. “At best, he can have an influence in and around Patiala, but at present even those he had appointed to party posts in the area continue to be with the Congress. As for the BJP, it is a marginal player having influence in some urban seats.”
Amarinder’s detractors point out that he has failed to get any of his ex-colleagues on board. There are also questions about whether he would be able to find candidates to field in the elections. Sources close to Amarinder, however, say he is in touch with Congress MLAs. His party could also attract leaders from the two breakaway Akali Dal factions and the AAP, they said.
There is also speculation over why the BJP has still not acknowledged Amarinder as an ally. The saffron party could be waiting to see the kind of support Amarinder is able to garner. The BJP is also watching how the repeal of the farm laws is received on the ground before deciding on its next move.
It is also unclear to what extent Amarinder will be able to take credit for the repeal of the farm laws, since the BJP appears keen on conveying that it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magnanimity that resulted in the decision. What Amarinder is facing is possibly the toughest test of his political career, in what could well be his final electoral outing.