The Janata Dal (Secular)’s election rally Pancharatna Yatre, which has promised reforms in five crucial sectors―education, health, agriculture, employment and housing―completed 50 days recently. While the yatra is drawing huge crowds, the ‘Mission 123’ roadmap of the JD(S), envisaging a clear majority for the party in the assembly elections, seems too ambitious. The JD(S) got only 37 seats in the 224-member assembly in 2018 and its highest tally was 58, which it won in 2004. Still, the JD(S) was in power twice, with H.D. Kumaraswamy serving as chief minister in two coalition governments–in 2006 and 2018, despite the party finishing third.
The oldest surviving regional party in Karnataka, the JD(S), nurtured by former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda, continues to be a force to reckon with, especially in the Vokkaliga heartland of Old Mysuru. In 2018, the party won 27 of 59 seats in the region, although it failed to attract urban voters. It is facing multiple challenges this time. The Congress has elevated Vokkaliga strongman D.K. Shivakumar as its state chief and the BJP is focusing on the Old Mysuru region. The party is also troubled by the mass exodus of leaders, while its ‘family-centric’ politics is another major challenge.
The JD(S), however, hopes that the BJP would suffer from anti-incumbency and expects trouble in the Congress camp following the tussle between Shivakumar and former chief minister Siddaramaiah. Party strategists believe that the Vokkaliga community is averse to Siddaramaiah’s brand of Ahinda politics, which banks on minorities, dalits and OBCs, and would back the Congress only if Shivakumar is projected as chief minister.
Besides consolidating the Vokkaliga votes, the JD(S) is hoping to woo the SC, ST and OBC voters. It is also trying to divide the Muslim vote by dubbing the Congress as a party that practises “soft hindutva”. It has named former Congress leader C.M. Ibrahim as its state chief and is fielding his son C.M. Fayaz from Humnabad in Bidar district.
The JD(S) campaign is managed by 63-year-old Kumaraswamy, while his actor son, Nikhil Gowda, who is the JD(S) youth wing president, is sharing the burden by overseeing the campaign in 40 constituencies. Kumaraswamy seems to be connecting well with the common man through his ‘grama vastavya’ (village stay) and ‘janata darshan’ (public grievance redressal meeting)―the two campaigns that earned him huge popularity during his earlier stints as chief minister. The first phase of the Pancharatna Yatre has now progressed into Kalyana (Hyderabad) Karnataka after having covered the Old Mysuru region, and will soon be entering Kittur (Mumbai) Karnataka in the last leg of the campaign.
The rally has been a huge hit, and the fan frenzy even earned Kumaraswamy a place in the record books after he received 500 garlands in 33 days. Garlands made of apple, cucumber, jaggery, sugarcane and coins are being presented to him. The ‘Kumaranna for CM’ campaign, too, is catching up. While the common man pours his heart out to Kumaraswamy, some bizarre requests, too, are coming in. A youth in Kolar urged Kumaraswamy to ban inter-district marriages stating there was a severe shortage of brides for farmers in his district due to affluent grooms from neighbouring districts marrying girls from his district. Kumaraswamy said it was a reflection of the state’s failure.
The JD(S) identifies itself as the crusader for the farming community and is focusing on assuring farmers a better life. Gowda reminded the farmers about the farm loan waiver of 125,000 crore implemented by his son. On January 16, Kumaraswamy celebrated Sankranti through a virtual meeting with farmers from 78 assembly constituencies at his Bidadi farm house.
The JD(S), however, seems to be troubled by an exodus of sitting MLAs and senior leaders. During the BJP’s Operation Kamala in 2019, three MLAs―party chief H. Vishwanath, Narayana Gowda and S. Gopalaiah―switched over to the BJP. Defections continue, with seniors leaders like Gowda’s close aide Y.S.V. Datta, Srinivas Gowda and S.R. Srinivas joining the Congress.
Gowda is a member of the Rajya Sabha, while his sons Kumaraswamy and H.D. Revanna, and daughter-in-law Anitha Kumaraswamy are MLAs. Grandson Suraj Revanna is an MLC and another grandson Prajwal Revanna is an MP. In 2019, Gowda’s defeat in the Tumakuru Lok Sabha constituency and his grandson Nikhil Kumaraswamy losing in Mandya pointed towards the winds of change sweeping through the Vokkaliga belt. This time, the family has announced that Nikhil will contest from Ramanagara and the family feud might force the party to part with a couple more tickets to family members, according to sources.
“You cannot write the JD(S) off. It wiped out the Congress in Old Mysuru in 2018. Siddaramaiah, the sitting chief minister, was defeated in Chamundeshwari as he was believed to have enticed seven JD(S) MLAs even when his government had a majority,” said political analyst Ravindra Reshme. “The family has managed to keep the party afloat and continues to stay relevant in state politics. The Vokkaliga community, especially in rural areas, has remained loyal to Gowda and is not swayed by the hindutva ideology as they are followers of Kuvempu’s idea of ‘Vishwamanava’ (global citizen). The BJP’s failure to cash in on Modi’s popularity and the infighting in the Congress between Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar and now Mallikarjun Kharge, might benefit the JD(S).”