Two weeks ago, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis gave an interview to a news channel to mark the first anniversary of the BJP-Shiv Sena government. When asked about the short-lived government he formed with the support of Nationalist Congress Party rebels led by Ajit Pawar in November 2019, Fadnavis said that NCP president Sharad Pawar had been in talks with the BJP to form government soon after the 2019 polls. A power-sharing formula, Fadnavis said, had been finalised, but the senior Pawar backed out at the last minute to cobble up the Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising the NCP, the Shiv Sena and the Congress.
After the interview was aired, Sharad Pawar said he had indeed held talks with the BJP. But, he said, he had done so to expose Fadnavis’s hunger for power. “I was the president of the BCCI for a long time and know a few things about the game of cricket,” he said. “The batsman (Fadnavis) was willing to walk into the trap, so I bowled a googly and got the wicket.”
On July 2, barely a week after Pawar spoke about his googly, his nephew Ajit Pawar and eight senior NCP legislators―among them were Pawar’s trusted aides such as Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse-Patil and Hasan Mushrif―took oath as ministers in the government led by Fadnavis and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Ajit became deputy chief minister for a record fifth time. Clearly, it was a clever delivery from Fadnavis that left the elder Pawar stumped.
Ajit’s second act of revolt was very much expected, especially since Sharad Pawar had made his daughter Supriya Sule the NCP’s working president a month earlier. What was not expected was the defection of NCP veterans such as Praful Patel, Sunil Tatkare, Bhujbal, Walse-Patil and Mushrif.
A top Congress leader said Supriya’s elevation sparked the rebellion. “Ajit Pawar and Praful Patel are not willing to accept Supriya’s leadership,” the leader told THE WEEK. “Ajit clearly felt slighted. He felt he was being relegated to a secondary role. The other seniors joined him because of the fear of central investigating agencies. It is not that Pawar senior was unaware of their moves; he had told them that he was clearly not in favour of joining hands with the BJP.”
Ajit was humiliated in 2019 because he had made the mistake of taking his uncle’s support for granted. But his clout in the NCP was such that he could not be sidelined. That was why he was appointed deputy chief minister in the Maha Vikas Aghadi government led by Uddhav Thackeray.
Ajit was not happy working under Uddhav, whom he considered as an inexperienced administrator. While Ajit would reach Mantralaya at 7am, Uddhav preferred to work from the comfortable confines of his residence. “Ajit was of the opinion that it was better to ally with the BJP, as it was in power at the Centre. But he could not convince party colleagues like Nawab Malik, Jitendra Awhad and Jayant Patil,” said a source.
That Ajit was biding time became clear after the Shinde-Fadnavis government was sworn in and he became the leader of opposition. Such was his friendship with Fadnavis that he continued to occupy Devgiri, the official bungalow usually allotted to the deputy chief minister. Even today, Fadnavis stays at Sagar bungalow, usually allotted to the leader of opposition, while Ajit stays at Devgiri.
Even though Ajit never missed a day of assembly sessions, there was talk that he was going soft on the government. Loyalists like Dhananjay Munde, now a cabinet minister, often had to defend Ajit saying his detractors were trying to vilify him.
Sources close to Fadnavis said Ajit often spoke to him in anguish about the efforts being made to sideline him in the party. He said his uncle was giving undue importance to leaders like Jayant Patil, Jitendra Awhad and Anil Deshmukh. All three leaders have chosen to stay loyal to Sharad Pawar.
Ajit’s maternal relatives are a reason for his proximity to the BJP. His maternal uncle has been a longtime sangh parivar functionary in Ahmednagar district, and his son is close to Ajit and was a BJP legislator. The family has been Ajit’s link to the BJP even before his first rebellion in 2019.
In May, when Sharad Pawar announced that he was stepping down as NCP president, Ajit was the lone leader who said his uncle’s wish should be respected and that the younger generation should take charge. But after a public display of emotions by leaders and party workers―Jayant Patil and Jitendra Awhad cried on stage urging him not to step down―Sharad Pawar made a U-turn and decided to stay on. Apparently, it was his last effort to prevent Ajit from joining hands with the BJP.
“It was planned that Pawar senior will step down and make way for Ajit and his team to take the party closer to the BJP,” said a source in the BJP. “That way, he could save his image by stating that the younger generation is now deciding the party’s course. But he did a U-turn exactly like he did in 2019. At that time, Ajit had expressed a wish to be made state party president. He was willing to give up the post of leader of opposition, but that was not done. Instead, Supriya Sule became national working president in charge of elections as well as Maharashtra. So Ajit made up his mind.”
ON JULY 3, a day after Ajit rebelled, the Sharad Pawar side petitioned Maharashtra Legislative Assembly Speaker Rahul Narvekar to disqualify nine NCP legislators who took oath as ministers. Jayant Patil said that a party legislator, whom he did not name, had sought action against nine legislators led by Ajit for violating the party’s ideological position. Patil, who is state party president, also said party workers and office-bearers across districts are with Sharad Pawar, who has declared that he would take the battle to the “people’s court”. “Nine legislators do not constitute a party,” he said. “They have engaged in anti-party activity and we will take strict action against them.”
Ajit responded by replacing Patil with Raigad MP Sunil Tatkare as state party president. “We have also petitioned the speaker to disqualify Jayant Patil and Jitendra Awhad [as legislators],” he said.
As speaker, Narvekar has to decide the battle of the Pawars. Narvekar is the son-in-law of NCP veteran Ramraje Naik Nimbalkar, who now supports Ajit. He told journalists that he would first have to ascertain whether the NCP is part of the government or the opposition before considering the disqualification petitions. This could very well mean a long delay, as Narvekar would first have to decide on the disqualification of Shiv Sena legislators―a matter that has been pending for months.
WHAT DOES AJIT gain by raising the banner of revolt this time? First, he and the leaders who support him are facing various probes by Central investigation agencies. The agencies could well be prodded to put the cases on the back-burner.
Second, if the rebellion is successful, he gets to mould the NCP in his style, without having to report to Sule or even Sharad Pawar. Third, Ajit’s sole ambition is to become chief minister, and if his coalition wins the assembly elections next year, the BJP’s national leadership can consider him for chief ministership, like they did with Shinde. Also, if Prime Minister Narendra Modi retains power after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the NCP as a whole could join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Sharad Pawar could retire from active public life and say the decision was taken by the new leadership.
Former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan said the BJP had promised to make Ajit chief minister in two months. “That is why he has rebelled,” Chavan told THE WEEK. “We will see Shinde stepping down in a couple of months. I don’t think this move has the blessings of Pawar saheb.”
A top BJP leader who was involved in planning the swearing in of Ajit and his party colleagues, however, said Shinde would remain chief minister. “If we ditch Shinde, the BJP would lose its credibility,” said the leader. “A message would go across the country that we use and throw away [allies]. That is certainly not our style. We are loyal to our allies. We will fight assembly polls in Maharashtra under Shinde’s leadership.”
THE DECISION to induct NCP leaders into the government was taken at a meeting between Shinde, Fadnavis and Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi on the night of June 29. It was Ashadhi Ekadashi, considered one of the most auspicious days in the state. Shinde performed a puja at the Lord Vitthal Temple in Pandharpur before leaving for Delhi for the meeting. They returned the same night after Shah gave them the go-ahead.
“Amit bhai asked Devendra ji whether the planning was foolproof and whether everything would be smooth, unlike last time,” said a top BJP source. “Devendra ji told him that Ajit had the support of 43 MLAs, six MLCs and three MPs, and that they were keen to work under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership.”
The BJP’s national leadership was keen to tie up with the NCP since 2014, when the Sena-BJP alliance broke down over seat-sharing in the assembly polls. Soon after the results came, the NCP offered outside support to the BJP to form a government led by Fadnavis. The Sena, which was in the opposition initially, joined the government months later.
The BJP’s national leadership had mooted a BJP-Sena-NCP coalition as it was seriously working on its plan of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’. It was apparently keen to have Sule in the Union cabinet. The NCP was ready, but a section of the BJP’s state unit and the Sena were opposed to joining hands with the NCP, as their poll campaign had been against the corruption of the Congress-NCP government.
After the 2019 elections, the BJP leadership felt that the Sena under Uddhav Thackeray had stabbed it in the back by parting ways with it, while the NCP under Pawar had played a double game. Since then, it had been wanting to get even with both Uddhav and Pawar. Shinde’s rebellion struck the former; Ajit’s move has weakened Pawar.
“It is not about the gains we make; it is about severely weakening the opposition to win the Lok Sabha polls in 2024,” said a BJP leader. “Another aspect of this is the destruction of the Pawar-Thackeray brand in Maharashtra politics. Our party reveres Balasaheb Thackeray, but his son is not worthy and we have shown him his place. Now Ajit Pawar has given us an opportunity to dismantle Brand Sharad Pawar.”
The BJP wants to win 45 of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. “With Ajit dada part of our government,” said a BJP leader, “we are now confident of giving a tough fight to even Supriya Sule in Baramati, a constituency which we or our allies have never won.”
With Ajit appointing himself as the NCP's national president, Pawar is facing one of the most difficult crises of his career. In 2013, when Pawar lured BJP stalwart Gopinath Munde's nephew Dhananjay away from the BJP, Munde had said, "Pawar saheb, today you have broken my house. A day will come when your house, too, will break."
Munde’s words seem to have come true.