Late in the evening on February 26, senior leaders and MPs of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction went into a huddle at Varsha, the chief minister’s official residence atop Malabar Hill. They were there to discuss how their party could have the final say in the seat-sharing talks of the saffron grand alliance ahead of Lok Sabha elections. They told Shinde that the party must insist on 18 of the 48 seats. “As we are the official Shiv Sena, we must get what we got last time, 22 seats,” said one of the leaders. “But if the BJP is too adamant, we should not settle for anything less than 18.” The united Sena had won 18 seats in the 2019 elections; of these, 13 went with the Shinde faction, while five remained loyal to Uddhav Thackeray.
The Shinde faction, it is learnt, wants to stake claim on the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg and Mumbai South seats, currently held by Uddhav loyalists Vinayak Raut and Arvind Sawant. Sena (Shinde) strongman Kiran Samant, elder brother of Minister Uday Samant, is keen to contest in Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg. His hoardings are up in many places across the constituency. The BJP, though, wants Union Minister Narayan Rane to contest from this seat; he was not given a second term in the Rajya Sabha for this reason. Rane himself, however, does not want to contest as he feels age and health are not his allies. However, bowing to the party’s wishes, he had met and requested Shinde to give up his claim on the seat.
There is a similar story in South Mumbai, where the BJP wants to field either Speaker Rahul Narwekar or its senior minister, Mangal Prabhat Lodha. The Shinde camp does not have a strong candidate here, but has not given up on the seat.
The BJP plans to contest at least 30 seats, leaving 13 to Shinde and five to Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party. The deputy chief minister has been asked to field candidates in the seats that the united NCP had won in 2019. So, in Baramati, which Supriya Sule has held since 2009, the name being floated is Sunetra Pawar, her sister-in-law and Ajit’s wife. In Shirur, Ajit’s son, Parth, might go up against Sharad Pawar loyalist Amol Kolhe. Sunil Tatkare―the NCP MP from Raigad, who is now with Ajit Pawar―seems to be in two minds about contesting from there.
An insider from the Ajit camp said the two factions could reach a last-minute deal on the two seats so that Sule is reelected without bitterness in the family and Parth can launch his career from Shirur.
This insider also pointed out that Jayant Patil, NCP heavyweight and Sharad Pawar loyalist, was likely to switch sides soon―he could either join Ajit or join the BJP. In either case, he could ask for the Sangli seat for his son. Patil, however, has said there is no question of him leaving the senior Pawar.
Hot seats: (From left) Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar | Amey Mansabdar
In the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi, on the other hand, the allies have agreed on nearly 40 seats, said a Shiv Sena (UBT) insider close to Uddhav. He said the Sena (UBT) has asked for 24 seats. “Last time, we contested in 23 seats,” he said. “This time we want one more seat―Mumbai North East―for Sanjay Dina Patil, who was NCP MP from that seat in 2009, but is now with us. The Sena is the big brother in the alliance in Maharashtra despite a split in our party. This is because there is no leader in the alliance, except Sharad Pawar, who has the statewide appeal of Uddhav Thackeray.”
MVA leaders met on February 27 to finalise the seat-sharing formula. The Congress and the NCP have said that, as Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi was included in the MVA on the Sena’s instance, it should get seats from the Sena’s quota. In 2019, the VBA had cut into the MVA’s votes in some seats, which cost senior leaders such as then Congress state president Ashok Chavan (now with the BJP) and Sushil Kumar Shinde.
The VBA has staked its claim for Akola in Vidarbha and Solapur in western Maharashtra. And while it might get Akola, where Ambedkar has previously won, time will tell if the Congress will give up its traditional hold on Solapur.
Uddhav, meanwhile, has already appointed coordinators for close to 20 seats, even before seat sharing has been finalised. Of the remaining 28, the Congress has demanded a similar number, leaving eight or nine seats for the NCP, which is facing a battle for survival after Ajit broke away.
Rahul Gandhi recently called Uddhav as their parties had sought some of the same seats―Ramtek, Hingoli, Jalna, Mumbai North West, Mumbai South Central, Shirdi, Bhiwandi and Wardha. The Congress wants Mumbai’s six seats to be divided equally between the two, but the Sena wants four.
As of now, there is agreement on 15 seats for the Congress, 16 for the Sena (including one for VBA) and nine for the NCP. The Congress and the NCP are likely to leave Hatkanangle for Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana president Raju Shetti. What remains to be seen is how the other seats are thrashed out.