Will the Congress emerge as the single largest party in Maharashtra after the assembly elections in October-November? The ruling saffron alliance, especially the BJP leadership, will vehemently deny such a possibility. But, going by the results of the Lok Sabha elections, it would be fair to say that the Congress can win over 80 seats and thereby emerge as the single largest party.
A top Congress leader told THE WEEK that the party is way ahead in the Vidarbha region, which has 62 seats. Because of the Maratha reservation agitation, the Maha Vikas Aghadi will have an upper hand in the Marathwada region (46 seats), where the Congress will be on an equal standing with its allies, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray). In western Maharashtra (58), the MVA will be ahead once again and the Congress and the NCP(SP) will dominate the scene. In Mumbai (36), too, the Congress and the Shiv Sena (UBT) will dominate, said the leader who is among the decision makers for the state Congress. The only regions where the Congress appears weak are north Maharashtra (47) and Konkan (39).
The leader, requesting anonymity, further said that the Congress is comfortable in 70-80 seats. He said he could not give an exact number because seat sharing has not been finalised. The party has classified assembly constituencies into A, B and C categories. “A is where the Congress can win, B is where the party has to put in an effort and C is where it is weak,” he said. “But, rallies by senior leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi can certainly make a difference for us in every seat.”
Another senior Congress leader said that the Congress hopes to contest 110 seats. “Our aim is to achieve a strike rate of more than 70 per cent,” he said. “During our recent tours across the state, we are getting a huge response. We went to Latur and activists and party sympathisers in large numbers were waiting for us at 1am. We met them and slept only after 2am. In a district like Beed, which is considered a bastion of the NCP and the BJP, nearly 500 activists came to meet us. They demanded that we must demand seats in Beed, too.”
A team of senior leaders, including state party president Nana Patole, leader of the opposition Vijay Wadettiwar, legislature party leader and former minister Balasaheb Thorat and former minister and leader of the party in the legislative council Satej Patil, have been criss-crossing the state with the state-in-charge Ramesh Chennithala. They have been holding meetings with party workers and ticket aspirants in every district.
Congress insiders indicated that the party will give tickets to all its sitting legislators except for the seven who are said to have cross-voted in the recent legislative council election. That means 38 of the Congress’s 45 sitting legislators will get tickets. “From the last elections, we have identified 68 seats where we were in second position,” said a senior leader. “We are working on all these seats with all our resources.”
Leaders like Amit Deshmukh (former minister and son of Congress stalwart Vilasrao Deshmukh), Yashomati Thakur, Vishwajeet Kadam and Sunil Kedar have been asked to focus on their regions while the senior leaders travel across the state.
The Congress leadership realised after the Lok Sabha polls that Uddhav Thackeray and his Shiv Sena have a limited appeal compared to Rahul Gandhi and Sharad Pawar. “We also realised that while our votes are transferring to the Shiv Sena, as in Mumbai, the Shiv Sena’s votes are not being transferred to us,” said a senior leader. “The reason is the hardcore, hindutva ideology of the Shiv Sainiks. Uddhav is getting about 60 per cent of Shiv Sainik and Shiv Sena sympathisers’ votes, while Eknath Shinde and the BJP are getting the rest. The Shiv Sena (UBT)’s loss in Konkan is proof of that. So, in a way, we have to carry the Shiv Sena (UBT). We have to make sure that the NCP and the Sena (UBT) cross the 40-seat mark. With Pawar, it is easily possible. But, we will have to lend a helping hand to the Sena (UBT). Only then can we cross 160-seat mark and have a comfortable majority.”
The leader said the post of campaign chief should be given to young blood as that can help galvanise the cadre. His only worry was whether the party will give up claim on the chief minister’s post.
Thackeray has been demanding that the MVA project a chief ministerial face. But, the Congress leaders are firm that there is no need to project anyone. “Uddhav performed badly in the Lok Sabha polls,” said a senior leader. “So, he has to explain to his cadre why he could not win. He is claiming that his votes got transferred to Congress-NCP, but his party did not get their votes.” The leader described this claim as nonsense and said that Thackeray has to introspect.
A section of Congress leaders feel Rahul and Sonia Gandhi are in awe of Thackeray. “They feel that he has been bravely taking on the BJP and has not deserted the INDIA alliance,” said the leader. He said the state unit would give up its claim on the chief minister’s post only if the high command decides so. But, he said, they would then insist on “more important ministries”.
Another Congress leader said that Thackeray will not be acceptable to candidates as the face of the MVA. “Rahul and Priyanka coming to any constituency will help and the same applies to Sharad Pawar,” he said. “This is not the case with Uddhav, as his appeal is limited to constituencies where he is strong.”
Congress leaders like Chavan, Thorat and Patole are senior to Thackeray in terms of legislative experience. Chavan has been Union minister and chief minister, Thorat has been a minister for many terms. While these two are top Maratha leaders, Patole and Wadettiwar are OBCs.
Another senior Congress leader told THE WEEK that the kind of financial mess that the state is in, the situation demands a seasoned and experienced hand. He said that it was important for the Congress to be seen as a party which can have its chief minister and, hence, it was important to demand more seats and get maximum candidates elected.
According to him, if Congress gets to have its own chief minister, then the decision will be taken by Rahul. “He has OBC infatuation,” he said, indicating that the new chief minister could be an OBC leader.