As Haryana prepares to vote in the assembly elections on October 1, the issues in the state are largely the same as they were in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. There was and is ire against the BJP government for its policies, and a resurgent Congress has become its main challenger in the Jat heartland.
Ever since Manohar Lal Khattar resigned as chief minister on March 12, Haryana politics has been eventful. Replacing Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini―an OBC leader and now the BJP’s face for the state elections―was the start of a course correction by the incumbents. Khattar, now a Union minister, was seen as the cause for people’s anger over quotas, farm laws and the alleged disrespect towards female wrestlers. The subsequent parting of ways with the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), the withdrawal of support from three independent MLAs, and a split verdict in the Lok Sabha elections signalled that putting its house in order would be hard for the party in power for the past decade. Compared with 2014 and 2019, the BJP seems to be on shaky ground, despite its recent efforts.
Two questions now dominate the political landscape: can the BJP recover lost ground? And how much can the Congress capitalise on the situation?
For the BJP, it is an uphill task. The primary challenges include overcoming the anti-incumbency of two terms, deep resentment over the Agniveer scheme, farmers’ anger, unemployment and drug addiction. Adding to this are secondary issues that have a spiralling localised effect. “Together, these are hurting the BJP’s prospects a lot,” said a senior BJP leader.
In rural areas, the e-initiatives Khattar introduced to achieve “paperless” delivery of services have backfired. The Meri Fasal, Mera Byora (MFMB) scheme, for instance, has alienated farmers. Launched in 2018, the scheme requires farmers to register on a digital portal with details of their land and crops. Although designed to facilitate benefits such as insurance coverage and reimbursement for crop loss by natural disasters, the farmers found it hard to adjust to the digital medium. “The scheme was well-intended but it should have been supplemented with digital literacy, especially among the farmers,” said Professor Rajiv Kumar Singh, political science department, Central University of Haryana. “To operate digitally, the farmers are now spending money from their pockets.”
Another e-initiative―Parivar Pehchan Patra―launched to create verified and reliable data of all families in Haryana, was not received well, especially in the wake of large-scale discrepancies in user details. The state government is now holding ‘Samadhan Shivirs’ (resolution conferences) across the state for on-the-spot redressal of complaints.
The sarpanches across Haryana have also been up in arms against the state government for more than a year, accusing it of curtailing the rights of gram panchayats. In March 2022, the government’s decision to cap the funds for development works without e-tendering to Rs2 lakh irked the gram panchayats. To course-correct, Chief Minister Saini, on July 2, restored the expenditure limit to Rs21 lakh. However, the sarpanches now want to scrap e-tendering altogether. “No one will like their financial autonomy to be taken away,” said Singh.
Uncertain times: Saini in the state assembly in March; behind him, to his right, is Manohar Lal Khattar, the man he replaced as chief minister | PTI
The impact of the displeasure was evident in the results of the Lok Sabha elections―the BJP dropped to five seats from all 10 in 2019. Although the BJP defends its initiatives as stepping stones to “curb corruption” and improve service delivery, the Congress has made it a major poll issue. Veteran leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda called it a “portals ki sarkar” and vowed to undo some of the e-initiatives if voted to power.
To make amends, the Saini government is now in overdrive. About a week ago, it agreed to procure 23 crops, notified by the Centre, at minimum support price from farmers, and removed the age cap under the Mukhyamantri Kisan Evam Khetihar Mazdoor Jeevan Suraksha Yojana, under which farmers and labourers get up to Rs5 lakh in case of death or disability while operating farm machinery. Saini announced significant benefits for Haryana’s Agniveers, including a 10 per cent horizontal reservation in government recruitment, age relaxation and interest-free loans up to Rs5 lakh for business.
The BJP is also trying to work along caste lines to consolidate non-Jat votes, especially the OBCs, who make up 30 per cent of the state’s population, followed by Jats (25 per cent) and scheduled castes (20 per cent). For this, Saini has earmarked Rs100 crore for renovation of dharamshalas and chaupals to woo dalits and OBCs.
“Before the Lok Sabha polls, everyone was sure that the Congress would sweep all 10 seats in Haryana. But the fact that the BJP won five seats and had leads in 44 assembly seats worked to our advantage,” said Satish Poonia, BJP’s election-in-charge in Haryana.
Experts, however, see anti-incumbency outweighing all of the BJP’s strategic measures. “The schemes and sops may earn a few votes for the BJP but, given the pattern in Haryana, it is difficult for the party to get majority,” said Professor Rajendra Sharma, head, department of political science, Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak. “Never in the history of Haryana politics has the same party formed the government for the third time. Therefore, while other issues exist, anti-incumbency will be the deciding factor.”
The Congress, well-established in the Jat and dalit belts across Haryana, is hoping to build on the momentum it found during the Lok Sabha elections. Hooda and his son, Deepender, launched the party’s campaign ‘Haryana Maange Hisaab’ (Haryana wants answers) in July from Karnal, the BJP’s stronghold and Khattar’s seat. The Congress cadre is inspired by its improved vote share of 43.67 per cent in 2024 from 28.51 per cent in 2019. The party’s ability to present a compelling alternative to the BJP will be the key factor in its quest to reclaim its influence.
The state Congress is also treading carefully on the infighting in its ranks, which recently played out in front of the high command when two senior AICC general secretaries from Haryana, Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala, complained to party president Mallikarjun Kharge about being sidelined in the state. They are upset with Hooda edging them out in the poll campaign and are dissatisfied with AICC in-charge of Haryana, Deepak Babaria. Kumari Selja, a dalit face who won the recent Lok Sabha election from Sirsa, is considered to be close to the Gandhis. “There is no infighting,” said state Congress president Udai Bhan. “Our opponents are exaggerating the situation. The BJP should look at its own mess.”
As Haryana prepares for a “direct contest” between the Congress and the BJP, regional parties like the Indian National Lok Dal and the JJP find their role diminished. While the INLD is a pale shadow of its former self, the JJP, a breakaway faction of the INLD, is also fighting for survival. A party that depends on Jat votes, the JJP is facing a credibility crisis because it allied with the BJP. Of its 10 legislators, six have left in the past few months.
An alliance between the INLD and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is also not expected to make much impact, except eating into a few Jat and dalit votes. “The traditional regional parties are on a downslide and they will most likely remain in single digits collectively,” said Sharma.
Some people believe that the AAP, which is campaigning aggressively, could benefit from the situation. “Like in Delhi and Punjab, if the AAP comes up with a pro-poor plan that convinces the electorate, they might eat into the votes of the traditional parties,” said Singh. For Sharma, though, the AAP has missed the bus. “It is too late. The AAP has not worked enough to make a dent. I would be surprised if they are able to open their account.”
Singh said that Haryana’s electoral landscape was marked by a mix of rural and urban constituencies, with distinct issues affecting each. With a deeply localised election on the cards, the profile of the candidates would matter a lot. “One cannot rule out the regional dynamics completely,” he said. “Assembly elections are different from general elections. I know assembly segments from my own region, Mahendragarh, where even some independents can win.”