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Delhi Assembly polls: Can BJP breach AAP's fort in the national capital?

Congress is trying hard to stay relevant in Delhi politics

Defenders of delhi: (From left) Delhi Chief Minister Atishi, Aam Aadmi Party leaders Gopal Rai and Manish Sisodia and AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal during a campaign event | PTI

What’s in a name? A great deal, it seems, when it comes to women-centric cash transfer schemes. Names like Ladki Bahin, Ladli Laxmi, Ladli Behna, Pyari Behna, Maiya Samman, Gruha Laxmi, Mahalaxmi, Subhadra, Magalir Urimai, Orunodoi and Laxmir Bhandar are more than mere labels. They represent cash transfer initiatives for women, introduced by ruling parties in 11 states as a form of gratitude after electoral victories.

The AAP’s biggest asset remains its founder Kejriwal, supported by a dedicated cadre. However, allegations of corruption and the sheesh mahal controversy have dented his image.
Modi’s involvement has benefited the BJP in various states, even without projecting a chief ministerial candidate. However, this strategy can also be a handicap, as some insiders admit.

Parties across the political spectrum have found these schemes potent electoral tools. Over the past two years, cash transfer programmes for women have been announced by newly elected governments in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Karnataka and Telangana. The same strategy is now being implemented in Delhi, where the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party has pledged 02,100 a month for women post-elections. The AAP is in a bitter battle with the BJP, with the Congress struggling to catch up as Delhi goes to the polls on February 5.

On the day Jharkhand launched its Rs2,500 cash transfer scheme for women―for powering the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha to a historic victory in November―the Congress announced the Pyari Didi scheme in Delhi, with a cash component of Rs2,500, if voted to power. The Congress, which has not won a single seat in the last two assembly polls, hopes the scheme will revive its political fortunes. Meanwhile, pressure mounts on the BJP to announce a similar initiative.

The appeal of these schemes lies in their ability to engage women voters, who form a significant electoral bloc. In Delhi, there are 71.73 lakh registered women voters compared with 83.49 lakh men. Among the 1.67 lakh new voters added to Delhi’s revised rolls since October, women (96,426) outnumbered men (70,873). This sharp increase is seen as a direct result of the AAP’s promise to increase the cash transfer for women.

Women’s participation in elections also underscores the importance of these cash schemes. In the 2020 Delhi assembly polls, 62.62 per cent of men and 62.55 per cent of women voted, highlighting how enthusiastically women participated in the elections. The AAP has been the beneficiary of this enthusiasm, as it promoted key initiatives such as mohalla clinics, improved government schools, free bus rides and doorstep delivery of rations.

In Jharkhand, where the ruling JMM promised Rs2,500 cash transfers, women voters outnumbered men in 85 per cent of constituencies, rendering the BJP’s polarising campaign on demographic changes ineffective. Often dismissed as “freebies”, these schemes have proven significant following electoral outcomes. The tangible economic benefits resonate deeply with voters, particularly women, ensuring that such initiatives remain a key electoral strategy.

The AAP has been in power since 2013, when the fledgling party, riding high on its anti-corruption movement, ousted Sheila Dikshit, the longest-serving woman chief minister, who had won three consecutive terms. Dikshit is credited with transforming Delhi, introducing CNG public transport vehicles, building flyovers and expanding the Delhi Metro. Since then, the Congress has been in decline, with its vote share dropping from 40.3 per cent in 2008 to 24.6 per cent in 2013, 9.7 per cent in 2015, and 4.2 per cent in 2020.

Leading the challenge: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with other BJP leaders during a rally | PTI

Although the Congress allied with the AAP during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the relationship has since turned adversarial. While the BJP remains its ideological opponent, the Congress views the AAP as its primary electoral rival in Delhi and Punjab, where both parties share a common vote base. Consider this: during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress garnered 22.5 per cent of the votes, while the AAP secured 18 per cent, with both parties contesting on their own. However, in 2024, when the two joined hands, the AAP’s vote share increased by nearly 6 per cent, while the Congress’s dropped by 3.7 per cent. This has led Congress strategists to argue that an alliance with the AAP benefits the latter. No wonder local Congress leaders opposed alliances with the AAP in the Haryana assembly elections and the Punjab Lok Sabha polls.

To recover lost ground, the Congress has announced its Pyari Behna scheme, alongside a Rs25 lakh health cover for residents. Former Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot announced the health care initiative, replicating a similar policy from his home state. Congress leaders from across the country, including Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar, who launched the Rs2,500 women’s cash scheme in Karnataka, are leading the party’s campaign in Delhi, which is a melting pot of different regional identities.

The Congress’s attack on Kejriwal highlights the same issues raised earlier by the BJP, such as the construction of a palatial house for the chief minister, dubbed sheesh mahal (glass palace), along with concerns about corruption, pollution and the cleaning of the Yamuna. The Congress also reminds voters of Dikshit’s tenure and her achievements in transforming the city.

“Delhi is ready for change as the promises made by the AAP government have not been fulfilled. Our Pyari Behna scheme will benefit women. People will remember the transformation we brought to Delhi more than a decade ago. Youth will get employment, women will receive cash transfers and the elderly will be provided pensions,” said Delhi Congress president Devender Yadav.

The biggest challenge to the AAP, however, comes from the BJP. The saffron party won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi in the last three general elections, securing over 50 per cent of the vote share. However, this dominance has not translated into victories in assembly polls, largely because of the absence of a strong chief ministerial candidate to rival Kejriwal. In 2015, the BJP brought in Kiran Bedi, a former IPS officer, to counter Kejriwal, a former IRS officer. However, the move backfired, as the BJP state leadership was not enthusiastic about an outsider.

The BJP claims it is in a strong fight for over 50 seats against the AAP. With its grassroots presence, bolstered by BJP and RSS cadres managing booths and mobilising voters, the party is making a concerted effort to breach the “Delhi Fort”, which has remained elusive for 25 years. “People have already decided that those who looted Delhi must go. We will not tolerate aapda (disaster). The people’s voice is for change and for the BJP. Aapda is going; BJP is coming,” said Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva.

If social media, billboards and walls are any indication, a fierce battle is underway between the BJP and the AAP. The BJP has creatively used key movie scenes and posters to target Kejriwal for not fulfilling his promises to transform Delhi.

Delhi voters have historically distinguished between electing a prime minister and a chief minister. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched a scathing attack on Kejriwal, accusing him of building a sheesh mahal for himself while Delhi struggled during the Covid-19 pandemic. The leaked portions of the CAG report detailing the Rs33 crore expenditure on the chief minister’s residence have become a significant weapon in the BJP’s arsenal. Modi also referred to the AAP as aapda, meaning disaster, coining a war cry that quickly resonated among voters.

Modi’s involvement has benefited the BJP in various states, even without projecting a chief ministerial candidate. However, this strategy can also be a handicap, as some insiders admit. Meanwhile, the BJP has pitted former MP Parvesh Verma, son of former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma, against Kejriwal, signalling a major contest. Verma’s candidature aims to appeal to Jat voters in outer Delhi areas bordering Haryana.

The BJP’s list of promises is now under scrutiny, particularly regarding how it plans to counter the cash transfer promises of the AAP and the Congress. The party relies on the “Modi Guarantee”―that a promise made by the prime minister will certainly be delivered. With less than a month left for the polls, intense campaigning, claims and counterclaims are expected.

Despite its small size, Delhi’s elections attract national attention because of its status as the seat of the national government. The AAP’s biggest asset remains its founder Kejriwal, supported by a dedicated cadre. However, allegations of corruption and the sheesh mahal controversy have dented his image. Kejriwal and former deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia spent months in jail over corruption charges in the alleged liquor scam. Former health minister Satyendar Jain was in jail for alleged money-laundering. The BJP and the Congress have used these cases to attack the AAP’s anti-corruption credentials.

The AAP faces significant challenges in delivering on its promises regarding pollution, road conditions and welfare schemes. However, it remains resilient, unlike the Congress, with counterattacks, calling the prime minister’s residence raj mahal. The party is trying to recover lost ground with new promises, including the monthly allowance for women, free health care for senior citizens and Rs18,000 monthly honorarium for Hindu priests and Sikh granthis.

The AAP has also adopted a slightly nuanced position nationally given the different nature of the mandate during the Lok Sabha polls. Despite opposing the BJP, it supported the Modi government on issues like the abrogation of Article 370 and the construction of the Ram temple.

For the AAP, in the spotlight is the New Delhi constituency, where Kejriwal faces BJP’s Verma and Congress’ Sandeep Dikshit, son of Sheila Dikshit. Other key battlegrounds include Kalkaji and Jangpura constituencies. In Kalkaji, Chief Minister Atishi Singh will face Alka Lamba of the Congress and Ramesh Bidhuri of the BJP. Lamba, a former AAP MLA, has returned to the Congress, while Bidhuri’s controversial remarks on Atishi and Priyanka Gandhi could hurt the BJP, especially in seats where women have a decisive say. In Jangpura, Sisodia’s shift from Patparganj shows the perils of anti-incumbency. He is being challenged by Congress veteran Farhad Suri and the BJP’s Tarwinder Singh Marwah, a three-time Congress MLA who switched to the saffron party in 2022.

“People will elect those who have given them zero power bills, good education, good health care and free pilgrimages. Delhi’s people will vote for those who implemented welfare schemes with honesty,” said Sisodia.

The question of who will hoist their flag over the “Delhi Fort” will keep the nation watching until February 8 when the results will be announced.

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