The BJP finds itself silently wishing luck to ideological rival Congress for the Delhi assembly elections. Last time, in 14 of 70 seats, the victory margin was under 10,000 votes; the ruling AAP won 10 of these seats. Manish Sisodia, then deputy chief minister, won Patparganj by 3,207 votes, forcing him to relocate to the safer Jangpura seat, where the AAP won by around 16,000 votes. As the Congress and the AAP share the same vote bank, the former’s revival―it was a distant third in 2020―could break the AAP’s hold over Delhi and give the BJP the opening it has been looking for.
The dalits, Muslims and the poor in unauthorised colonies shifted en masse from the Congress to the AAP because of Arvind Kejriwal’s aggressive pro-poor outreach and the massive anti-corruption movement ten years ago. As a result, Sheila Dikshit―whose 15-year rule had seen massive infrastructural development―was dethroned. Twelve years later, history is remembering her tenure kindly, with her name resonating within pockets of the electorate.
The Congress started its campaign with Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi holding his first rally in the minority-dominated Seelampur constituency. The party then moved the Supreme Court to defend the Places of Worship Act 1991, which seeks to preserve the character of religious places as they existed at the time of independence. This sent out a strong signal to minorities.
The Congress’s ‘Jai Bapu, Jai Bheem, Jai Samvidhan’ slogan is aimed at winning over the dalits and marginalised communities. Dalits constitute nearly 17 per cent of Delhi’s population, while Muslims make up nearly 13 per cent. As the Congress’s fortunes dwindled over the past 12 years, the AAP was the sole gainer.
However, the AAP’s winning streak is limited to assembly elections. The BJP cleans up during the Lok Sabha polls. “The BJP has been impacted by the way constituencies have been carved out after the delimitation exercise in 1998,” said a party leader. “The demographic distribution limits its outreach during the assembly polls. However, this factor is negated when several assembly seats combine to form a Lok Sabha seat.”
Knowing this, the BJP is going all out in its campaign. Its women cell members are holding ‘drawing-room’ meetings, its youth wing is engaging with voters through nukkad sabhas (corner meetings), and its special volunteers (vistaraks) are fanning out in the slums. In the past six months, senior BJP leaders, including ministers, have spent every Sunday engaging with slum voters to break the AAP’s hold over them. This micro-management and grassroots outreach―a skill the BJP has honed over the years―have helped the BJP in recent assembly elections.
To supplement this, the big rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have specifically addressed residents of unauthorised colonies with a promise of a pucca house under the PM Awas scheme.
Modi has punned on aapda, the Hindi word for disaster, to define Kejriwal’s tenure. The BJP has played up key “shortcomings” of his rule, such as the opulent official residence he built for himself, and charges of corruption against several party leaders. The BJP’s aim is to tear down brand Kejriwal, like it did with brand Dikshit in 2013.
The footsoldiers of the BJP and the RSS are taking the message to the last voter. Both entities have resolved their reported differences for the greater “cause”. The apparent schism between the ideological mentor and the party during the Lok Sabha elections―which led to the BJP losing 63 seats―has since been narrowed and the poll results in Haryana and Maharashtra have energised the parivar, say party leaders.
“The people of Delhi have made up their mind for change,” BJP election in-charge and Lok Sabha member Baijayant Panda told THE WEEK. “They are fed up with aapda’s mis-governance. We have got over 50 per cent vote share during the Lok Sabha elections. Like in other states, where the party is now getting over 51 per cent, the tide is turning [here, too]. Their game is up.”
A defining character of the current political campaign is the promises made. Given that the AAP has ruled Delhi with its extensive sops, the BJP has softened its stance on “freebies”. The latter will be making more than 100 such promises to voters, targeting every section that has supported the AAP in past elections. The BJP’s cash sops include Rs2,500 for women, Rs21,000 for pregnant women and a monthly stipend of Rs1,000 for dalit students in technical courses.
The BJP has also promised thali meal for Rs5 for slum dwellers, and a dedicated welfare board for taxi and auto drivers, with a promise of Rs10 lakh life insurance and Rs5 lakh accident insurance. The drivers have been the most vocal AAP supporters, carrying party banners on their vehicles. A similar welfare board for domestic workers is also on the cards.
The BJP has even assured voters that the existing social welfare schemes will not be discontinued if it comes to power. The voters of Delhi have never had such largesse promised to them.
The reason for taking the promises a notch higher has to do with the changing character of Delhi’s beneficiaries. With improvement in individual income levels, aspirations have also grown. “The AAP had won in previous polls on its delivery of 200 units of free power. Now, even those beneficiaries have installed air-conditioners owing to better incomes,” said a BJP leader. “The only tangible benefit that a big section (women) is getting is free bus rides.” And so, the promises are bigger.
“The AAP blocked the extension of the Ayushman Bharat scheme and the PM Awas Yojana in Delhi. When our government is formed, these schemes will be extended to Delhi in the first cabinet meeting,” said BJP leader Ramvir Bidhuri.
More than a decade of AAP rule has also created a sense of anti-incumbency related to several issues, be it the poor condition of roads, frequent floods and even deaths due to electrocution. By one estimate, there have been three dozen such deaths last year.
“Delhi wants a double-engine government as it is deprived of development,” said BJP spokesperson Pradeep Bhandari. “In the past 10 years, Kejriwal has only given guarantee of corruption and has not delivered on his promises.”
The one missing piece in the BJP’s arsenal has been a credible face to capture the voters’ imagination, the way Dikshit and Kejriwal did. The party has pitted several of its “national” leaders, including former MP Parvesh Verma, against Kejriwal, and Ramesh Bidhuri, against Chief Minister Atishi. It has also asked its national general secretary and dalit face Dushyant Gautam to contest from Karol Bagh, hinting that he could be up for a big role if the BJP wins by a huge margin. “We have won many assembly polls under collective leadership,” said Panda. “We have popular national leadership and capable state leaders.”
Though the AAP and the Congress are part of the INDIA bloc, the latter has only stepped up its attack on the former. The AAP, though, has responded with silence. If the mandate is not clear, they might need each other, like in 2013. The BJP, therefore, is pushing hard for a clear result on February 8.