The latest opinion poll by The New York Times shows that Republican candidate Donald Trump's lead in the presidential election has widened following Joe Biden's debate debacle on June 27. Trump now leads Biden by 49 per cent to 43 per cent, the widest margin he has recorded in an NYT poll since 2015.
Even more alarmingly for Biden, nearly three-quarters of American voters now believe that Biden is too old to do the job. Among independent voters, a key cohort the Biden campaign hopes to woo, that figure goes up to about 80 per cent. No wonder Biden seems to have indicated to key allies that he may not be able to continue unless he manages to convince the American public in the next few days that he is up for the job.
According to media reports, Biden privately acknowledged that he has only a few more days to save his candidacy and that his next few public appearances in the Independence Day weekend could make or break his campaign. Biden has an interview with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News on July 5 and has scheduled campaign events in key battlegrounds, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
While the Biden campaign has dismissed his debate debacle as an aberration, blaming it on a number of factors such as a cold that he was suffering from and the president's extensive foreign travel prior to the debate, a gradual deterioration of his health has been evident over the past several months. For instance, on June 10, during an advance Juneteenth concert at the White House, Biden looked frozen for nearly half a minute, even as guests danced around him. In the same month, while speaking to Time for an interview, Biden wrongly referred to President Xi Jinping as Vladimir Putin.
In February, at a press conference held to refute special counsel Robert Hur's observation that Biden was a "well-meaning man with a poor memory", he confused Egypt with Mexico. A few days later, he referred to former German chancellor Angela Merkel as the late chancellor Helmut Kohl and also confused French President Macron with former president Francois Mitterrand. After the debate fiasco, his aides conceded that Biden is "dependably engaged" only from 10 am to 4 pm and that he remains fatigued and could have verbal miscues outside that window.
While the senior Democratic leadership closed ranks around Biden immediately after the debate, despite most of the liberal media in the US asking the president to quit, as the days pass by more voices of dissent can be heard from the Democratic camp. On July 3, Lloyd Doggett, who represents the 37th Congressional district in Texas, became the first sitting Democratic member of Congress to ask Biden to go. "I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson. Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same," he said.
Doggett was followed later in the day by Raul Grijavla, a house member from Arizona. He said Biden should shoulder the responsibility of keeping that seat and part of that responsibility was to get out of the race. Grijavla's comments are perhaps more damning for the president as he comes from a swing state that Biden won last time, but he is clearly behind Trump there this time, according to all reliable polls. The danger for Biden is that if the trickle of calls to quit turns into a wave in the coming days, it will be really hard for him to ignore it and move ahead. Already, three more House Democrats—Mike Quigley of Illinois, Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp of Washington—have indicated that they too would prefer a new candidate. Among the senators to publicly weigh in on the issue was Peter Welch of Vermont. "The big question going into the debate was the age question. The outcome of the debate was that that question has intensified," he said.
According to Politico, several draft letters are circulating among Democrats and at least one asking Biden to quit. The tension is real among vulnerable house members who fear that they would sink with a losing Biden in November. "Everybody wants Biden to quit," said a House Democrat. "There is a sense of despair. I think people don't understand how we get out of this hole. And we're hurtling towards losing to Trump."
As a sense of doom prevails in the Democratic camp, the Biden team has intensified its efforts to assuage concerns. On July 3, Biden met with a group of 20 Democratic governors at the White House and explained to them that he was exhausted on the day of the debate, which affected his performance.
In the meeting, organised by Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, chair of the Democratic Governor's Association, Biden said he was staying in the campaign. Vice President Kamala Harris closed the meeting, outlining the threats posed by Trump's return to the White House.
While the governors appeared satisfied by Biden's explanations, not everyone appeared to be convinced. Kentucky's Andy Beshear, whose name is doing the rounds as a possible replacement candidate, said the debate performance would damage the campaign. And he wanted Biden to interact more with the public and assuage their concerns. "I don't think there is anything wrong with asking the president to talk to the American people a little bit more about his health or that debate performance."
Biden's inner circle, especially his immediate family, remains fiercely protective of the president, blaming the campaign leadership for the ongoing crisis. They have been privately criticising his longtime aides and are discussing whether to fire senior White House advisor Anita Dunn and her husband Bob Bauer, Biden's personal lawyer. They were part of a dozen-strong team that prepped Biden for the debate. The family, including First Lady Jill Biden, the president's sister Valerie Owens and Hunter, continue to urge the president to stay on and fight.
The Biden camp argues that if the president goes, chaos will reign as there are legal, logistical and financial challenges in naming a replacement. They also claim that under the rules of the Democratic National Committee, there is no clear pathway to name an alternative candidate. However, according to the DNC's rules and regulations finalised in 2022, there is still an option to replace the candidate even after the nomination convention on August 22.
DNC chair Jamie Harrison can name a new nominee after consulting with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries and Democratic Governors' Association Chair Tim Walz. The name would then be presented to DNC members, who can confirm or reject the nominee. Many Democratic leaders feel that a host of presidential aspirants should be allowed to put forward their case and the best nominee should be chosen from among them.
Various names float around as potential replacements. These include Governors Gavin Newsom (California), Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), J.B. Pritzker (Illinois) Wes Moore (Maryland), Andy Beshear (Kentucky) and Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania). Other possibilities include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Senators Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota), Cory Booker (New Jersey) and Raphael Warnock (Georgia).
There were also rumours about former first lady Michelle Obama as a candidate, but after Biden's debate disaster, Barack Obama issued a forceful statement offering unconditional support to the president.
The frontrunner among alternative candidates is, interestingly, Vice President Harris. While she was considered to be a weak candidate by many Democratic leaders in the past based on her ill-fated 2020 presidential campaign, she appears to have a genuine edge now. The latest opinion polls show that she is running strongly, trailing Trump by just two percentage points, which is well within the margin of error. No other Democrat comes closer. Several senior Democrats have indicated that they would root for her if Biden chose to step down.
Harris can ensure the enthusiastic participation of Afro-American and women voters. She can also deflect criticism faced by the Biden administration on issues such as the Gaza war. And Harris can confidently sell the many achievements of the Biden administration without really getting hampered by anti-incumbency. She is also an effective campaigner on abortion rights and can turn the election into a referendum on the issue, where the Democrats enjoy a clear edge. Harris, moreover, is a known figure, unlike most other potential contenders who are untested on the national stage.
Choosing Harris will also spare the Democrats of several logistical and financial nightmares. It could resolve the question of delegates chosen for the Biden-Harris ticket pledging their loyalty to someone else. It could also settle the legal questions about using the Biden campaign's $300 billion war chest. Harris is legally entitled to use the funds if Biden relinquishes his candidacy, but other candidates are not allowed to use that money, under existing campaign finance laws.