After several months of vetting, screening and auditions, Donald Trump may have finally created a shortlist of his vice presidential candidates. From an extensive list of nominees, it seems to have come down to Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and J.D. Vance of Ohio, and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota. These were the three names that the former president spoke about as his potential running mates during an interview on July 10 with Brian Kilmeade of the Fox News Radio. Trump said he would announce his final choice “close to” the Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, next week.
Trump being Trump, there were some pretty oddball observations about his likely running mates during the interview. For instance, the only comment he made about Vance was on his facial hair. Trump does not like facial hair and the Ohio senator has a beard and a moustache. Although Vance had called Trump “America's Hitler” in the past, that does not seem to be a concern now. Some insiders from his camp felt that the beard could be a bigger concern.
Kilmeade asked Trump whether he would drop Vance because of his beard. “Word is that you won't pick Vance because of his facial hair,” he said. Trump replied that the beard was no longer an issue. “Vance looks good, he looks like a young Abraham Lincoln,” said Trump about the 39-year-old. Incidentally, when Lincoln was 39, he did not have a beard. He was a clean-shaven lawyer from Illinois, who lost his seat in the Congress after just one term.
Trump has stayed away from the limelight since the June 27 presidential debate in which President Biden gave a sloppy, slack-jawed performance. He was resting and playing golf at his Bedminster resort in New Jersey after giving his staff a short break. In what turned out to be a smart campaign strategy, he let Biden's debate debacle dominate the news cycle, which helped amplify the concerns and crisis in the Democratic camp. The liberal elites are divided, the elected representatives are worried and the donors are unwilling to support the Biden campaign after the debate revealed to the nation a president who appears diminished, physically and mentally. Many Democrats now want Biden to drop out. And nearly 80 per cent Americans think that Biden is unfit to serve another term in the White House. The Trump campaign is factoring in the changing dynamic as it works towards choosing a vice presidential nominee. “We wanted to see what they're doing,” said Trump, about the chaos within the Democratic Party. “It might make a difference.”
A clear indication about the changed thinking was evident from the manner in which Trump has started attacking Vice President Kamala Harris, who could be his likely opponent, if Biden is replaced. “If Joe had picked someone even halfway competent, they would have bounced him from office years ago.... It was brilliant, because, it was an insurance policy,” said Trump, addressing a campaign rally on July 9 at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami, Florida. He repeatedly mispronounced the vice president's first name and called her a staunch left-wing ally of Senator Bernie Sanders. He also blamed her for the immigration mess on the southern border and tried to tie her to Biden's economic and technology policies, including the efforts to mitigate the perils of climate change.
While in Florida, Trump also teased the crowd about the possibility of choosing Rubio, 53, who also addressed the same rally. A few hours before the rally, the Trump campaign sent out a fundraising email, suggesting that his VP announcement might come during the rally. But it never happened. “They probably thought I was going to announce that Marco is going to be vice president,” teased Trump.
Rubio, despite being a frontrunner, faces a major complication because of the residency requirement of the presidential ticket. Rubio, however, has name recognition, has a proven track record and has excellent ties with the donor class. As a ranking member of the senate foreign relations committee, he has impeccable foreign policy credentials. He is a fluent Spanish speaker and his Hispanic roots—his parents were working-class immigrants from Cuba—will be an added advantage. And over the past few months, he has been working hard to align his policy positions with that of Trump's. A recent example has been the senate vote in April opposing additional funding for Ukraine. Because of his multiple campaigns for various offices, Rubio has been thoroughly vetted, so Trump need not bother on that account.
Burgum, on the other hand, is not known nationally. The 67-year-old conservative politician comes from North Dakota, a small state that is reliably Republican. He is also not very charismatic and is unlikely to enthuse any section of voters particularly. His hardline position on abortion is also of some concern for Trump. But he is fabulously wealthy, is a capable fundraiser and can support the campaign financially, if needed. (Burgum developed a tech company in the 1980s, which he sold to Microsoft in 2001 for over $1 billion.)
Trump has repeatedly praised his financial acumen and he loves surrounding himself with the rich and the famous. Moreover, Burgum has never attacked Trump, unlike Vance and Rubio. Even during the Republican debates, he never said anything against Trump. In fact, he was the first candidate to call off his campaign and endorse Trump. Apart from his business experience, Burgum also has eight years of executive experience which could come in handy.
Compared with Rubio and Burgum, Vance is a political lightweight. And he represents Ohio, which is reliably Republican. But he has the advantage of being young and being ideologically aligned with Trump's far right MAGA world. Many Republican observers think that he could well be the ideological heir to the Trump movement and would be the perfect fit if Trump is seriously contemplating picking a political successor as his running mate.
While Vance, Rubio and Burgum appear frontrunners at the moment, even Trump's inner circle do not know what decision will he make eventually. A few more names are still in the mix. For instance, Senator Lindsay Graham, one of Trump's influential allies, is still pushing for Tim Scott, his fellow senator from South Carolina. Names of former housing secretary Ben Carson, Republican conference chair Elise Stefanik, Congressman Byron Donalds and Senator Tom Cotton are still doing the rounds. And, Trump could still surprise everyone with a dark horse when he finally announces his running mate next week.