On August 12, Donald Trump made a high-profile return to X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, with an interview hosted by X boss, tech billionaire Elon Musk. The interview started 40 minutes late, as it was marred by technical glitches. Musk said the delay was caused by a "massive distributed denial of service (DDOS)" attack that allegedly hit the data lines. However, sources at X later said there was no such attack.
The tech issues were reminiscent of those in May last year when Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida faced repeated disruptions while launching his presidential bid on the same platform. Trump had labelled that a "disaster", and, this time, the Kamala Harris team duly took note. "Trump’s entire campaign is in service of people like Elon Musk and himself—self-obsessed rich guys who will sell out the middle class and who cannot run a livestream in the year 2024," wrote the campaign in an official statement.
The tech glitches and the meandering interview, which Stephen Colbert described in his 'Late Show' as a "steaming crap sandwich", are emblematic of the woes facing the Trump campaign after the presidential race changed fundamentally following President Biden’s decision to quit and endorse Harris as his replacement.
Latest polls by The New York Times show Harris up by four points among likely voters in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which could carry her to the White House. Meanwhile, the race could be changing outside the Blue Wall, as well. The Cook Political Report changed its outlook to "toss-up" for Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, which it had put "lean Republican," when Biden was in the fray.
Along with the polls, the popular perceptions and media coverage, too, has shifted away from Trump. From questioning Biden’s mental acuity and physical health, the media and the pundits have turned their attention to Trump’s unhinged behaviour and frequent rambling. For the moment, the former president appears incapable of dealing with the shifting political landscape caused by the Harris switchover. The strategy of running an easy and lazy campaign against a frail 81-year-old white man has suddenly become unviable. The glory days of the Republican convention last month in Milwaukee which saw Trump’s coronation as the nominee--where he was surrounded by fawning followers who hailed him as a national hero after having survived an assassination attempt--now seem like a distant memory.
Trump finds himself on the back foot in his fight against an Afro-American woman nearly 20 years his junior, who is attracting huge crowds. With a far more telegenic, energetic and articulate opponent, he appears clueless about a response. Harris seems to have united the Democratic Party behind her, although a few weeks ago the party appeared fractured over Biden. The Harris campaign received yet another major boost with her vice presidential choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is getting largely positive feedback from the Midwest battlegrounds. And perhaps for the first time in Trump’s career, he is getting overshadowed by his rival, thereby losing the advantage of “earned media”.
At the moment, Trump seems to have scaled down his campaign, relying largely on his running mate J.D. Vance to be his attack dog in the battleground states, while he himself is back to spouting conspiracy theories about the “stolen election” and indulging in name-calling and racial insults. His inner circle fears that it could hurt him further.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris greets attendees | AP
On August 15, Trump addressed a rally in North Carolina, his first foray into a swing state in a fortnight. His team had portrayed it as an attempt to redefine the campaign. The idea was to focus on policy issues, especially the economy and inflation. However, Trump spent most of his speech making fun of Biden and also indulging in personal attacks against Harris. “Her laugh is career-threatening. That’s a laugh of a person with some big problems,” he said.
The Trump team is clearly worried about their candidate not being able to stay on message. Before the North Carolina rally, they had hoped that the Musk interview would help. But Trump spent time complaining about the 2020 election, and even on “Harris’s beauty” on the latest Time cover. Before that, he accused the vice president, the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants, of concealing her racial identity; that she had always identified herself as Indian, and started asserting her black identity only for electoral gains.
It was the same when he held a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence on August 8 after feeling that the media was no longer giving him enough attention. In a rambling 65-minute exchange, Trump said Harris was “barely competent” and accused her of “destroying California and San Francisco”. At one point, Trump said the size of his audience when he spoke before the Capitol riots in January 2021 was bigger than the turnout for Martin Luther King Jr.’s historic 1963 march to Washington.
A week later, Trump held another news conference at his Bedminster golf club in New Jersey, where he said he was "entitled" to insult Harris. "I think I am entitled to personal attacks. I do not have a lot of respect for her. I don't have a lot of respect for her intelligence,” he said.
It has become clear that Trump is not being able to settle on defining Harris, or frame a message to politically attack her. The inability to focus on a consistent message and a policy framework is a serious concern for the Trump team which fears that their candidate could lose a winnable race.
Another point is that Trump still frames himself as an insurgent candidate, an outsider who wants to “clean up the Washington swamp”. While that worked eight years ago against Hillary, it is unlikely to be effective this time, because he has been president once and is now a part of the Washington establishment. Harris, on the other hand, did not have a visible profile as vice president. Her national presence has been much limited, so it is much easier for her to use the insurgent tag herself, framing her message as a change agent.
Apart from his inability to stay on message, Trump is also picking needless fights. Inexplicably, he taunted Republican Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia, the popular leader of a key state, which has become a battleground after going with Biden last time. Trump has had a history with Kemp and many Republicans believe that it cost the party two senate races in Georgia in January 2021. Trump called Kemp “little Brian” and said he had turned Georgia into a “laughing stock”, while addressing a rally in Atlanta earlier this month. Before Biden dropped out, Georgia looked like a done deal for Trump. But now with Harris, the race is a dead heat.
Such unforced errors have rattled the Trump campaign. Apart from putting off moderate voters, it could also hurt his fundraising capabilities. For instance, he angered one of his wealthiest patrons, Miriam Adelson, widow of casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, by having one of his aides send her angry text messages, accusing her of employing Republicans who do not support him. Adelson's super PAC, Preserve America, has spent millions to support Trump. According to reports, the decision to send those messages was encouraged by Ike Perlmutter, the former chairman of Marvel Entertainment and a Trump megadonor, who wanted Adelson to contribute to a super PAC backed by him. The Trump team is now working overtime to clean up the mess after worries that Adelson could scale down her support for Trump.
This race, however, is still Trump’s to lose. Despite all the missteps, the polls are not yet that disastrous for him. The question is whether Trump will be able to stop focusing on the personal side of the race and return to politics and policy. If he manages to do so, November will see yet another tight fight.