It has only been two months since a would-be assassin targeted Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump suffered minor injuries from a bullet, which narrowly missed him that day, but it gave his presidential campaign a big push. There was a similar security scare on September 15 when a man, armed with an assault rifle, was all set to fire at him. The attacker had hidden himself in the foliage outside a golf course owned by Trump in West Palm Beach, Florida, lying in wait for him for more than 12 hours. When Secret Service agents finally spotted him, he was within 500 yards of Trump, who was playing a round with his friend and Republican donor Steve Witkoff.
The man arrested in connection with the latest assassination attempt is Ryan Wesley Routh, who has a long rap sheet, and, interestingly, is also a keen follower of international affairs, particularly the Ukraine war. He had travelled to Ukraine following the Russian invasion. He told the The New York Times last year that he wanted to recruit Afghan soldiers to fight on behalf of Ukraine. Routh, a 58-year-old North Carolina resident who had recently lived in Hawaii, has been charged with felony possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial number. He did not get a chance to fire his weapon, and it appears that he acted alone.
Following the first attempt on Trump’s life on July 13, many supporters and even neutral political observers predicted that the incident would give Trump a commanding lead over President Joe Biden, who was running for re-election. And those predictions turned out to be correct. But much has changed since then—Biden, whose popularity ratings suffered an alarming dip, dropped out of the race and was replaced by Kamala Harris. The Trump campaign has gone downhill since Kamala’s entrance, as she quickly gained momentum and money, and energised the once desolate Democrats. The presidential debate, too, came as a major disappointment for the Trump campaign as Harris emerged the clear winner. In that sense, the second failed attempt on his life might have come as a lucky break for Trump.
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The two assassination attempts have heightened concerns about political violence in the US, once again. Once a land of violent high-profile political assassinations, the US has been relatively safe from such attacks—the last prominent one being the 1981 attempt on President Ronald Reagan’s life. But now, the threat appears real and both Trump and Harris address outdoor crowds from behind the safety of bulletproof glass.
Trump’s response to the latest attempt against his life was swift and defiant, almost resembling what he did after the July attack when he pumped his fist and chanted, "fight, fight, fight”. Blaming Biden and Harris and the Democrats for their "rhetoric and lies”, Trump framed the attack as part of a wider campaign against him. His strategy is to portray himself as a victim of Democratic hostility, rallying his base by reinforcing the idea that he is being persecuted. And that strategy could still work.
Assassination attempts on Trump have only deepened his appeal among his core supporters. They have been somewhat downcast after the steady rise of Harris—a feeling which was aggravated following Trump’s inconsistent messaging, incoherent poll strategy and the debate debacle. The Trump team hopes that the latest incident could break the pattern and reinforce his image as a fighter. Trump continues to assert that he took a bullet for democracy, and for many of his loyal followers, this narrative strengthens their commitment to him.
The Democrats, meanwhile, will take heart from the fact that the assassination attempt is unlikely to influence independents or undecided voters, who are the key to winning the swing states and, therefore, the White House. The suspect Ryan Wesley Routh's unclear political motives, too, could make it difficult for Republicans to assign blame. Although Routh was a registered Democrat once, he had supported Trump in the 2016 elections and backed a Nikki Haley-Vivek Ramaswamy ticket during the Republican primaries.
Ironically, the incident might even alienate some independent and moderate voters as it adds to the chaos that seems to surround Trump all the time. Moderates in key swing states are increasingly concerned about the complications linked to his candidacy. While the MAGA base may rally around his portrayal as a martyr, it seems unlikely that undecided voters will react favourably in the long term.
The senior Democratic leadership and the Harris campaign also seem to be going ahead with such assumptions. Although Democrats were relieved about Trump’s safety, they have not paused their campaigns as they did following the first assassination attempt in July. It shows the high stakes for both parties as the election day approaches quickly, with Harris headed to key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.