While a handful of swing states determine the fate of the US presidential elections, the role of Pennsylvania appears even more crucial as it has 19 electoral college votes, which is the highest among battleground states, and the fifth most nationally. Historically, the Keystone State has also been a bellwether for presidential elections, picking the winning candidate in 10 of the last 12 cycles.
Pennsylvania is all the more important for Kamala Harris as the candidate who captures Pennsylvania has often also carried Michigan and Wisconsin—the three states are collectively called the "blue wall" of the Democrats. While Harris is eyeing more than one pathway to the White House, the blue wall strategy appears the most feasible and pragmatic one for her, making Pennsylvania a must-win state.
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This November marks the first presidential election cycle influenced by the latest decennial census and the subsequent reapportionment of congressional seats. It has created a new electoral map, with states experiencing population growth adding seats and those with population losses dropping them. For instance, Pennsylvania has seen its electoral college votes drop from 20 in 2020 to 19 this time.
According to political analyst Nate Silver's forecasting model, Pennsylvania has a 35 per cent chance of determining the election outcome in November. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she has a 91 per cent chance of winning the presidency, while Donald Trump would have a 96 per cent chance if he prevails. Trump, in fact, was the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since Bush senior in 1988, but Biden won it back for the Democrats in 2020, ultimately securing him the necessary electoral votes to unseat Trump.
Although both candidates can technically reach the required 270 electoral votes without Pennsylvania, doing so would complicate their paths to victory. Therefore, both Harris and Trump are heavily focused on Pennsylvania, with Harris holding public events in the state on 10 separate days since announcing her candidacy and Trump making appearances on at least eight days, so far. The high stakes are also reflected in the substantial investment in advertising: Democrats have spent $114 million this year and Republicans $102 million for television and radio advertisements in Pennsylvania, far surpassing spending in other battleground states. The race, at the moment, is really tight, compared with 2016 when Trump narrowly beat Hillary Clinton and 2020 when he lost to Biden by a similarly narrow margin. However, Democrats will be wary about the fact that Trump significantly outperformed polling averages in both campaign cycles.
Pennsylvania’s demographics present a unique challenge: approximately 74.5 per cent of the state’s voters is non-Hispanic white, with African Americans at 12.2 per cent and Hispanics at 8.6 per cent being the next largest groups. The state also has a higher percentage of the elderly, with nearly 20 per cent aged 65 and above.
White working-class voters remain a key demographic, having solidly supported Trump eight years ago, while Democrats made gains with this group in the last elections. Along with suburban voters, they formed a crucial part of the Biden coalition in 2020, particularly in counties surrounding Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Trump performed well with middle-aged and elderly voters. His influence in rural Pennsylvania remains really strong, despite the Biden administration initiating several infrastructure projects to benefit the region.
To compensate for Trump’s lead in rural areas, Harris needs significant majorities in major urban centres like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. While Trump’s support among white voters has come down compared with the past polling cycles, he is performing surprisingly well among black voters, especially black men, which has got the Harris campaign worried. Harris also lacks some of the advantages Biden enjoyed. For instance, the Pennsylvania electorate is about 25 per cent Catholic, and fewer than half the voters hold college degrees. Biden’s Catholic background and working-class appeal made many of them choose him in 2020, but latest exit polls show Trump enjoying a healthy lead among the Catholics this time. Also, Biden was born in Scranton—he is often called ‘Scranton Joe’—and he enjoyed an enduring connection with the state.
Moreover, Pennsylvania is the only major swing state where a woman has never won a race for president, governor or senator. Harris will also have to explain her past anti-fracking rhetoric, with the process being a key economic driver in the state. Her decision not to pick Josh Shapiro, the popular governor of the state, as her running mate, might also influence the voting preference of at least a few voters. But the Harris campaign will take heart from the fact that no MAGA candidate has won a major statewide race in Pennsylvania since Trump in 2016. Similarly, Pennsylvania was one of the states where Nikki Haley performed really well during the Republican primaries.
As expected, both Trump and Harris are working overtime to win over the independent and undecided voters, with Harris making a conscious effort to reinvent herself and appeal to a broader audience. As the race intensifies, experts predict a tight fight, with margins expected to be as narrow as 50,000 to 75,000 votes.
Since 1948, no Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania. If Harris can capture the state and maintain the trend of winning Michigan and Wisconsin, she could be on a clear path to victory in the presidential race.