‘Do no harm’, is the basic advice that debate coaches give vice presidential candidates while prepping them for the big night. ‘Never hurt your presidential candidate, and score a few points, if possible’ is all that they have to do. That was precisely what Republican candidate Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio achieved on October 2 in New York during his vice presidential debate with Democratic candidate Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota.
It was, by and large, a civil discourse, focusing more on policy, and less on divisive rhetoric. The two candidates, in fact, agreed upon a few things, and there were no below-the-belt attacks. The only setback for the two candidates was that the debate was pushed to the sidelines from the primary news cycle as Iran chose the same night to fire a couple of hundred ballistic missiles on Israel.
Walz had a slower start, which hurt his overall performance. However, as the night went on, he gained confidence and he even took on Donald Trump’s strengths—his handling of immigration and border security, highlighting how the former president undermined a bipartisan border security initiative. Walz also passionately argued for access to health care and also the women’s right to choose, drawing a clear contrast with the Republican position on the issue. But his overall performance lacked the skill and finesse that Vance displayed. He appeared nervous at times, and took several awkward pauses. Clearly, he was not exactly comfortable on the debate stage and appeared a little rusty.
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Vance, on the other hand, looked stronger and more polished. Already a skilled media figure and accomplished debater, he stood out with his delivery style and composed presentation. Given his considerable television experience and legal background, he was able to control the pace and also the broad contours of the debate. During moments when the night could have turned nasty, he softened his approach, showing concern and empathy. His emphasis on being a father and the manner in which he consoled Walz when he narrated how his son once witnessed a shooting rendered a human touch to his performance, which clearly stood in sharp contrast with his brash public image.
Vance was successful in tying Walz and Kamala Harris to the policies of President Joe Biden, especially on key election issues such as economy and immigration, without appearing unduly aggressive. Diplomacy was another area where he scored, arguing that the Biden-Harris administration was inept while dealing with strongmen like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. He also criticised the Biden administration’s handling of the Ukraine and Middle East crises.
Vance performed competently on topics like abortion rights as well, although it was supposed to be his Achilles' heel. He managed to acknowledge the political challenge the issue has created for Trump and himself, even as he explained his pro-life philosophy. Overall, he did a capable job of defending Trump’s record and castigating Harris. Perhaps the sole notable blip for Vance came when Walz asked him whether Trump had lost the 2020 election. Vance dodged the question and refused to give a straight answer, which might have left some voters wondering about his commitment to the basic tenets of democracy.
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While the debate may not have any significant impact on the election—vice presidential debates rarely influence voting patterns—Vance’s performance has clearly bolstered his reputation within the Republican Party, giving him a head start in the 2028 election, irrespective of the results in November. Although he was seen as a rising star among the Republicans, he has had a tough time running as Trump’s VP candidate. His decision to amplify false claims that Haitian refugees in Springfield, Ohio, are eating pets and his past controversial comment attacking some women as “childless cat ladies” who “don’t really have a direct stake” in the future of the United States have seriously hurt his standing among independent, moderate voters. Through his debate performance, however, Vance seems to have managed to recast his image as a thoughtful, composed candidate, from being a brash, divisive figure known for his toxic rhetoric.
Most traditional conservative intellectuals and donors must have been relieved to see a more measured and substantive approach from Vance, which stood starkly different from the combative persona he has often displayed on the campaign trail. He clearly tempered his fiery populist views to give a rational critique of globalisation and a coherent argument in favour of economic nationalism, especially the revival of American manufacturing. It presented him as a viable intellectual bridge between the Trump brand of extreme MAGA populism and the more traditional socioeconomic narrative once championed by the Republican Party. It has also given old school Republican stalwarts some hope that Vance might be able to unite the traditional conservative base and the Trump partisans. On the debate stage, Vance managed to deliver populist lines couched in establishment language in a calm, measured tone. It might offer the best possible chance to unite the Republican Party and ready it for a post-Trump future.
More importantly, the timing seems right for Vance. The Republican Party is entering an era of leadership transition. Even if Trump wins in November, he will only be eligible to serve one more term, leaving the 2028 Republican nomination open. And if he fails, the transition begins immediately. Trump has already made it clear that he is not interested in running in 2028, if he loses in November. With the debate, Vance has shown that he is able to redefine his public image and win over key party insiders as the Republicans look beyond Trump. But it is no done deal. The competition for the 2028 nomination will be fierce, with other prominent Republicans, such as Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin, along with a host of other leaders, already waiting in the wings.
Vance is playing it cool at the moment. “The only thing Senator Vance is thinking about is making sure we put President Donald J. Trump back in the White House,” said his spokesperson Will Martin, responding to questions about his 2028 chances. “We have less than 35 days left in this election and there is absolutely nothing that will distract us from that goal. If we come up short this November, what happens in 2028 won’t matter because this country will be beyond saving.”