With less than two weeks left until the presidential election, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump has become increasingly contentious, with recent polls indicating a statistical dead heat. As the Democrats confront a tightening race, concerns are mounting over Harris's ability to mobilise key voter demographics, particularly young black and Hispanic men, trusted constituencies that have traditionally bolstered the Democrats.
Harris enjoys an impressive 78 per cent backing from African-Americans as a whole and a narrower 56 per cent among Hispanic voters. However, strategists within the Democratic Party are growing anxious as Trump seems to be making inroads into these crucial groups. Notably, young men from both demographics appear to be drifting towards Trump, raising alarms within the Harris camp.
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Former president Barack Obama has been vocal about these concerns. Addressing black men during a recent campaign rally in Pittsburgh, he suggested that underlying biases may hinder their acceptance of a woman as president. "I'm speaking to men directly," Obama said. "You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses.... It makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president." This candid acknowledgment reflects broader anxieties among Democratic leaders regarding Harris's campaign momentum.
The stakes are particularly high in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where recent polls indicate troubling trends for the Harris campaign. As Trump gains traction, the traditional Democratic stronghold known as the Midwestern "blue wall" appears increasingly vulnerable. A palpable sense of urgency and anxiety has settled over the Harris team, with strategists admitting that the race is essentially a dead heat, and the emerging trends do not favour them as polling day approaches.
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Adding to Harris's difficulties is her unique position as the first major party candidate in over half a century who did not have to face a primary challenge. This has led to growing scepticism about her electability, especially as enthusiasm within the Democratic base appears to be waning. Party insiders admit that Harris's singular path to the nomination failed to equip her with the necessary competitive edge to energise key voter blocs.
Economic dissatisfaction is another critical issue. Many black and Hispanic voters are feeling disillusioned about the economy, with only 20 per cent rating current economic conditions as good or excellent. This discontent, combined with rising concerns about crime and immigration, is reshaping voter preferences. Notably, nearly 40 per cent of African-American voters and 43 per cent of Hispanic voters support Trump's proposals for building a wall along the southern border. Furthermore, Trump enjoys support from 45 per cent of Hispanic voters and 41 per cent of black voters on the issue of deporting undocumented immigrants. This shift in sentiment underscores why Trump has intensified his messaging, particularly around immigration and economic issues, in the campaign's final stretch.
In response to such mounting challenges, the Harris campaign is reworking its strategy, shifting focus toward high-visibility events, including a significant rally in Houston on October 25 to address abortion rights. This move aims to galvanise women voters, particularly in Texas, where restrictive abortion laws have sparked considerable backlash. However, some within the campaign question whether resources are being allocated efficiently, as Texas is considered a reliably Republican state, suggesting that a focus on swing states might yield better results.
Despite these challenges, the Harris team remains optimistic that by improving turnout among women, they can mitigate losses among male voters. Harris hopes to woo more independent, moderate women voters who usually vote Republican. Nonetheless, the key issues of economic dissatisfaction and safety loom large. Many voters, particularly from black and Hispanic communities, have prioritised economic issues, reflecting a shift from racial equality alone to an economic agenda. In fact, most Democratic strategists forget that it was economic self-interest that brought minority voters initially to the party fold during the New Deal era ushered in by president Franklin D. Roosevelt.
As Trump presents a new economic messaging strategy that appeals to minority and underprivileged voters, the Harris campaign must confront these dynamics head-on. The growing support among black and Hispanic voters for strict immigration controls and concerns about crime further complicate the narrative, indicating potential ideological alignment with Trump's "America First" approach.
Recognising the urgent need for a robust strategy to address the economic and national security concerns of pivotal voter groups, the Harris campaign is pivoting once more. With a renewed emphasis on her prosecutorial style—a tactic that initially fuelled her campaign—Harris is seeking to project strength to voters drawn to Trump’s strongman persona.
Three Trump donors recently spoke to Reuters about their growing optimism regarding his electoral chances, attributing this shift to a national focus on immigration and economy and Trump's recent surge in campaign activities. "I spoke with the campaign, and they’re guardedly optimistic," noted one donor. "We just need to win one of the blue wall states; it’s very doable," referring to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which, along with states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, could secure the White House for Trump.
While Democrats still believe that Harris has the potential to beat Trump, the lack of enthusiasm among critical voting demographics poses a substantial challenge. The next few days are crucial for the Harris team as they aim to reinvigorate their base and appeal to undecided voters. Harris’s ability to recalibrate her messaging and connect authentically with a diverse electorate will determine whether she can maintain the Democratic coalition and secure victory against Trump.