London, Jan 8 (PTI) The next UK Parliament is set to be the most diverse yet based on current candidate selections by major British political parties, according to latest projections by a UK-based think tank and charity created to promote diversity and social cohesion.
British Future’s ‘Diversity in the next Parliament’ report released on Sunday reveals that ethnic minority representation, including parliamentarians of Indian heritage, in the House of Commons is set to rise from 10 per cent to around 12 per cent after the next General Election. This outcome is forecast regardless of the political outcome, reflecting a "new cross-party norm" of ethnic diversity in British politics.
With the governing Conservatives and Opposition Labour Party having selected roughly around nine-tenths of their candidates for winnable target constituencies and early retirement seats, the think tank's projection finds that the number of ethnic minority members of Parliament is set to increase from 65 to at least 75, and even as many as 83, for the first time at the next general election.
Rishi Sunak, the first British Prime Minister of Indian heritage, had indicated last week that he is considering going to the electorate in the second half of the year.
"The next Parliament will be the most diverse ever, reflecting a new norm across political parties,” said Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future.
"More ethnic minorities and more women are likely to sit in the Commons than ever before. Parliament is gradually catching up with the electorate that it represents. But this needs to accelerate further if it is to keep pace with the growing diversity of our society and close the gender gap,” he said.
The projected increase of diversity in the Commons would still be below the 15 per cent required in order to keep pace with the diversity of the electorate. Therefore, Katwala strikes a note of caution to say that despite progress, political parties could miss a 2024 opportunity and called for more proactive action.
"In the longer term, Parliament and political parties should collect data on ethnicity and social class, to track representation, identify gaps and ensure all groups are getting a fair chance,” he added.
The Labour Party is projected to have the largest number of ethnic minority MPs, at around 55 if the party wins an overall majority, compared to around 21 Conservatives. The 2019 general election saw 66 ethnic minority MPs elected to the Westminster Parliament – of which around 25 per cent of Indian heritage – dubbed a “diversity milestone” as for the first time 10 per cent of MPs were from an ethnic minority background.
“That record looks set to be surpassed once again later this year,” British Future said.
The projections also show that there will be a record number of women elected, particularly if the Labour Party is successful in gaining seats at the General Election.