Why water scarcity is key factor in Syria's protracted conflict

Milano, Jan 6 (360info) Water control has become a central tool in Syria’s conflict, as both the state and external actors target vital resources for leverage and power.
     Water security will be a key test of the new Syrian government’s credibility. Since 2011, water scarcity has been a central factor in the country’s prolonged conflict, manipulated for political and economic gain. In a region already vulnerable to climate change, prolonged drought and water shortages have worsened the plight of a country devastated by 13 years of war.
     Before 2010, 98 per cent of urban Syrians and 92 per cent of rural residents had reliable access to safe water. Today, the United Nations estimates that “nearly two-thirds of water treatment plants, half of all pumping stations, and one-third of water towers have been damaged in the conflict.”
     Additionally, between 50 per cent and 95 per cent of Syria’s irrigation system has been destroyed, primarily due to targeted attacks by Russia, the Assad regime, and the Islamic State.
     Today, Syria is home to 6.7-7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), while 12.3-13 million Syrians have fled the country. With 90 per cent of the population living in poverty, more than 16 million require humanitarian aid – 80 per cent of whom need water, sanitation, and hygiene assistance. Food insecurity affects 12 million Syrians, with 1.8 million at risk of becoming food insecure. Cholera has placed 6.5 million people at high risk since 2022.
    
     Water crisis in the Syrian conflict
     The drought of 2006-2010 has often been cited as a precursor to the uprising against the Assad regime that erupted in 2011. However, recent analyses argue that the water crisis exacerbated public grievances rather than directly sparking the conflict.
     The war itself has set a dangerous precedent for the weaponisation of water. Access to this essential resource has been denied not only through the destruction of infrastructure but also by its deliberate targeting to exert power and control over civilians.
     Since 2017 the city of al-Bab in north-western Syria has been cut off from its local pumping station by the Assad regime as a punitive measure. Similarly, Turkiye’s military campaigns between 2016 and 2022 targeted water resources or took control of them, selectively providing access to areas under Turkish authority.
     Another example is what happened to the Khabur River and the Alouk pumping station in Hasakah, under the Kurdish Autonomous Administration: drone strikes by Turkish Armed Forces on Kurdish-held areas of northeast Syria between October 5 and 10, 2023, damaged critical infrastructure and resulted in water and electricity disruptions for millions of people.
    
     Water as a weapon of war
     The destruction of water facilities has been a grim feature of the conflict. In 2019 alone, UNICEF reported 46 attacks on water infrastructure. Even water-rich regions like Latakia have faced shortages due to pipeline sabotage and resource theft, often involving figures connected to the Assad regime.
     Damascus has not been spared. In December 2017, the Ain al-Fijeh water source in Wadi Barada was cut off, leaving 5 million people in the capital without safe drinking water. Compounding these issues are the effects of climate change and natural disasters, such as the 2023 earthquake.
     Since the summer of 2017, water levels in southern springs and lakes have begun to decline. In 2021, Syria experienced its lowest rainfall on record, causing a sharp drop in the Euphrates River’s flow. Projections suggest a 20 percent decrease in Syria's total water supply by 2050.
    
     Geopolitical challenges to water security
     Geopolitical tensions have further complicated Syria's water crisis. Turkiye’s actions against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north illustrate that the end of the Assad regime does not mean the conflict is over.
     Between 2019 and 2024, Turkiye targeted civilian infrastructure, including gas facilities and power plants in the North East of the country, worsening water shortages. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 11 towns and 2750 villages have suffered from the destruction of fuel, electricity, and water supplies.
     Turkiye's control over the Euphrates and Tigris rivers significantly impacts Syria's water security. Ankara, eager to stabilise its 900 km border and facilitate the return of 3.6 million Syrian refugees, has pursued aggressive campaigns against Kurdish militias to weaken the military and political power of the People's Defence Units (YPG) and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
     Turkiye claims that the YPG is linked to the PKK, which has been engaged in a decades-long conflict with the Turkish state. The YPG controls a large swathe of territory in Syria along the Turkish border, which Ankara views as a security threat. However, this approach undermines Syria's prospects for peace and its ability to fully regain sovereignty.
     In western Syria, Turkiye’s influence extends to the Orontes basin, which accounts for 14 per cent of Syria’s water supply. Poor governance, pollution, and inadequate infrastructure have strained this vital resource. There is no mechanism for managing this transboundary water basin, shared by Lebanon, Syria, and Turkiye.
     Meanwhile, Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights continues to affect Syria’s water security. Control of Mount Hermon and key water sources in Quneitra has strained agricultural irrigation, already impacted by overuse and low rainfall.

     Building a new paradigm
     The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, brought about by forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), offers hope for change but does not immediately alter Syria’s water crisis. The country remains burdened by years of war and a legacy of Ba’athist-era mismanagement.
     Rebuilding Syria’s water infrastructure is critical, requiring both adaptation measures and a new political paradigm. Domestically, this includes ensuring equal access to resources and rejecting sectarianism. Regionally, Syria must address its complex relationships with neighbouring countries, particularly over shared water resources.
     Developing sustainable water management practices and rebuilding trust are essential steps towards stability. Only by addressing the political and environmental challenges head-on can Syria hope to secure a future where water scarcity no longer dictates the course of its history. (360info.org) GRS
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(This story has not been edited by THE WEEK and is auto-generated from PTI)