New Delhi, Nov 13 (PTI) India's fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2024, while China could see a marginal rise of 0.2 per cent, according to new research by a group of international scientists.
The report, unveiled during the UN climate conference or COP29 in Azerbaijan's Baku on Wednesday, stated that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels could reach 37.4 billion tonnes, an increase of 0.8 per cent from 2023 levels.
Atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, which is set to become the warmest year on record. This is 2.8 parts per million higher than in 2023 and 52 per cent above pre-industrial levels.
"The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study.
According to a UN report released last month, India's greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1 per cent in 2023, contributing to 8 per cent of the global total.
However, the country's historical contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at only 3 per cent.
India's per capita emissions remain low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), far below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e.
In the report released during today's COP29 discussions, the team of scientists, called the 'Global Carbon Project', said China's emissions, which make up 32 per cent of the global total, are likely to increase slightly by 0.2 per cent, though there is a chance they could decline.
Emissions from the United States and the European Union, which contribute 13 per cent and 7 per cent of the global total, are both set to decline, with drops of 0.6 per cent for the US and 3.8 per cent for the EU.
For the fossil fuel emissions in India, which make up 8 per cent of the global total, the team forecast a 4.6 per cent spike.
Emissions from the rest of the world, which together account for 38 per cent of global emissions, could see a rise of 1.1 per cent, according to the report titled 'Global Carbon Budget 2024'.
The researchers said that in 2024, coal emissions will likely increase by 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent, globally.
Coal, oil, and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent, and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. However, given the uncertainty in projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, they said.
The report also pointed out that emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3 per cent of global emissions and are tracked separately from national or regional totals, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent in 2024. However, these emissions will still be 3.5 per cent below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have dropped by 20 per cent over the past decade but are expected to rise in 2024. Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and new forest planting now offsets about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, they added.
Technology-based CO2 removal accounts for only a tiny fraction -- around one-millionth -- of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
The report said that emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which continued into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil.
Land and ocean carbon sinks continued to absorb around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, said, "Despite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time."
Dr Glen Peters, of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, noted that there are many signs of positive progress at the country level and a sense that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive.