Even while displaying most symbols of authority of his mentor, the late AIADMK supreme leader Jayalalithaa, current Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswamy (EPS) seems to have just that, and not her more famous charisma.
This apart, at his assuming of office, EPS suffered from inherent ‘incumbency’ inherited from ‘Amma’, which is a political burden, not a strength as often misunderstood —and the likes of which Jaya and her own mentor, the late M.G. Ramachandran (MGR), did not have to suffer while consolidating their hold over the party and the larger electorate.
From having all his ministers and officials line up in a long row of chairs with their backs to the wooden walls of his Secretariat room to having the chief secretary and others at all his public functions and official meetings, EPS is following the Jaya example of ‘holding a court’ from a throne, muted to the present-day democratic norms as against the kings and queens of yore.
In between, during his short-lived third term as chief minister, Edappadi’s present-day deputy O. Panneerselvam (OPS) held official meetings at a round table, and let top officials do their job where their presence was not required by his side.
Like his DMK rival M. Karunanidhi, the OPS model ensured that officials could find time to push files for faster decisions and made the common man feel that they had access to their chief minister, after all. If filmy popularity and public adulation flowing from their populist government schemes worked to the advantage of both MGR and Jayalalithaa, much of the criticism associated with their government’s performance flowed from a public perception of slow decision making, caused by such inherent, yet avoidable, disadvantages of the leader’s choice.
On the political front, too, EPS would like to be seen as a tough cookie, both by the voter and party cadre alike. On issues like the ongoing transport workers’ strike in the state, he has remained unyielding to opposition suggestions for him to talk to the workers directly, and taking such other tough measures that do not befit a chief minister still finding his feet. In political and administrative spheres, where a chief minister’s job is much more than that of a senior minister, which experience and expertise he alone possessed at the inception of his government.
Sense of insecurity
On the political/party front, EPS began going after dissenters from within his native district region and community from day one, thus pushing the likes of former ministers S. Semmalai and E. Ponnuswamy into the waiting hands of rival OPS, who is now a suspecting comrade-at-arms. In doing so, EPS reminded one only of the political behaviour of Janata Dal prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda, whose first act after assuming office was to have his mentor-turned-rival, the late Ramakrishna Hegde, thrown out of the party in his native Karnataka.
If anything, EPS’ inherent, as well as inherited, sense of insecurity at inception gave an early foothold to the OPS faction in EPS’ western districts, where his Vellalar Gounder community have been staunch AIADMK loyalists since MGR’s time.
In the caste-dominated party politics, where OPS’ Mukkulathore community had held all the trump cards close to their chests—since the days of Jayalalithaa’s disgraced and jailed live-in confidante V K Sasikala Natarajan—it was saying a lot.
If during the post-Jaya split era, EPS gave extra voice to one-time veteran ‘Dindigul’ Srinivasan, a Mukkulathore in lesser right, by ranking him number two in the Cabinet, the re-entry of OPS has meant that the likes of Srinivasan have either fallen silent, or have been silenced by circumstances that many of them reportedly feel to be claustrophobic just now.
More recently, EPS has had his own native political mentor, and senior one-time top Jaya aide, in K.A. Sengottiyan, replaced as party chairperson. He has been forced to restore the Jaya-era title to septuagenarian E Madhusudhanan, then belonging to the OPS faction, in whose name the Election Commission (E) restored the AIADMK’s prestigious ‘Two Leaves’ symbol on the very eve of the much-delayed and once-cancelled byelection for Jaya’s R.K. Nagar Assembly seat.
Madusudhanan came a distant second to T.T.V. Dhinakaran, Sasikala’s nephew and AIADMK ‘rebel’, dubbed an ‘independent’ as per EC norms, in R.K. Nagar. Madusudhanan has since reportedly taken up a case against senior EPS ministerial aide, D. Jayakumar, who overnight became the faction’s self-appointed spokesman, taking on not only the OPS faction when they were apart but also political newcomers like actor Kamal Haasan, handing over a case against the government and the party, where none possibly existed.
Which way the court verdict?
If the EC order on the ‘symbol case’ went in favour of the reunited EPS-OPS faction, rival factions are awaiting the Madras High Court verdict on Assembly Speaker P. Dhanapal first disqualifying and later declaring as vacant the seats held by 18 MLAs identified with the Sasikala-Dhinakaran faction.
The Speaker’s order came despite the HC specifically holding that the very disqualification of these MLAs under the ‘anti-defection law’ cannot be enforced until the final disposal of the case—which could well go up to the Supreme Court, in due course. So could the EC order on the ‘symbol issue’ if the Sasikala-Dhinakaran faction decides to still stake a claim on the party in place of a post-R.K. Nagar rethink on the wisdom of floating a party of their own, possibly with his victorious ‘pressure cooker’ symbol as their future mascot, too.
If in the absence of these 18 MLAs, the EPS government could claim a legislative majority, despite their acknowledged EC figure putting the same at 111 in a House of 234 in the pre-R.K. Nagar situation, the ruling party’s position may face a reversal if the courts restore their membership on merit.
At the same time, the ruling party is faced with a disqualification situation of its own kind, what with the official DMK Assembly whip, R Sakkarapani, pointing to the violation of AIADMK whip by the 12 OPS faction MLAs, before reunification on the trust vote that was sought and obtained by EPS after taking over and as per the directions of then acting governor, C. Vidyasagar Rao.
This apart, the DMK is also faced with a situation in which Dhanapal has initiated privilege moves against 21 of the party's MLAs in a total of 89, from a total alliance figure of 98, including eight of the Congress, its ally, from the 2016 elections.
Living on borrowed time
For all intents and purposes, the EPS government is living on borrowed time, but can still hope to pull through at least up to the point until the pending HC cases are finally disposed of by the Supreme Court.
It is a time-consuming process but then, when Dhinakaran staged a walkout from the Assembly during the ongoing, short-duration maiden session of 2018, at least two of the ruling party members were seen slipping out of the House, though without declaring their intention—but giving substance to the former’s claims of having ‘sleeper cells’ across the aisle.
The opposition parties, led by DMK’s M.K. Stalin, leader of the opposition, walked out of the house after loud protests, when new Governor Banwarilal Purohit began reading out his annual address, citing the EC figure of 111 MLAs’ support for the government, and charged that the governor was backing a ‘minority government’ so very openly without directing them to a floor test.
The DMK in particular has taken exception to the governor flouting ‘established constitutional norms’ by holding ‘review meetings’ with district administrators every now and again. Sections within the AIADMK too claim in private that it was in possible preparation for a term of governor’s rule in the state, depending of course on which way the court orders in the ‘disqualification cases’ may go.
It is in this background that the EPS government seems to be enjoying a Pyrrhic legislative majority at least until its real strength is proved in real terms and in real time. Lest the powers-that-be should mistake the frustrated silence of the majority as the inevitable backing for them, they may be misreading the ground situation, especially if court verdicts were to go against them.
Worse still for the government and the party, EPS began with biting off more than he could chew. On the government front, pretending to have a legislative majority and presenting himself to be a right and rightful successor of Jayalalithaa does not have too many backers.
In the party, though he is named only as the joint coordinator, with OPS as the coordinator, with Madhusudhanan still as the figure-head chairperson of the reunified AIADMK, EPS’ stamp of disapproval more than approval is seen across the board—especially in the sacking and side-lining of real and perceived dissidents.
It is a dangerous game the chief minister seems to be playing long before stabilising his leadership vis-a-vis the electorally successful Dhinakaran faction in the cadres' mind, and the DMK-led opposition's mind inside the House.
Given the piled-up issues of policy decisions and programme implementation inherited also from the Jaya era, incumbency can become a burden for EPS, both during elections and without them, too. Against this, both MGR and Jaya were in the opposition when they came to consolidate their political positions within the party, founded by the former.
Anti-incumbency against the ruling DMK rival of their times became a boon for them both. In EPS’ case, ‘incumbency’, instead, too, could become a bane, despite the government expanding populist schemes from the past. These were mentioned in the governor’s address and are expected to be followed up most likely in the budget.
Approval and disapproval
This apart, EPS’ lacks name recognition of the kind that both MGR and Jayalalithaa brought with their leadership, going beyond their filmy popularity.
MGR was associated with the DMK for long when he broke away and floated the AIADMK. Jayalalithaa, though seen as MGR’s female costar in many box-office hits, was also into active politics under his tutelage for nearly a decade before going on to succeed him after his death, following an early split and reunification in the party.
EPS now has had a split and reunification, but not his predecessors' popularity and face recognition.
That may still go to Dhinakaran, and for all wrong reasons, maybe, but then he has also displayed the kind of confidence that only Jaya had shown in recent memory, though she, like EPS now and MGR at the inception of the AIADMK, was tentative at best.
For now, EPS is adopting the famed carrot-and-stick policy. Even as he is seeking to cleanse the party of ‘Dhinakaran elements’ on the organisational wing in the post-R.K. Nagar phase, he is also trying to consolidate his perceived hold over the legislative wing. Apart from keeping the ‘Dhinakaran camp’ under check through ‘disqualification’ despite court orders and thus keeping further dissensions under possible check, in the ongoing session of the state assembly, as deputy chief minister and house leader, OPS moved a resolution for nearly doubling the salaries of MLAs from Rs 55,000 per month to Rs 1.05 lakh.
The DMK-led opposition staged a walkout, protesting against the move, saying the very same government was denying what was due to the striking transport employees across the state—and created legislative hisotry of kind in the state, when the party’s Leader of opposition, M.K. Stalin, declared that it did not say that it members were contributing the hiked part of their pay to the Chief Minister’s Relief Fund. But then, through all these consolidation move and the like, no one is talking about the OPS faction or leadership other than to use OPS stamp of approval, but not to address those of his camp’s disapproval(s). That is saying a lot, every which way.
(The writer is Director, Chennai Chapter of Observer Research Foundation, the multi-disciplinary Indian public-policy think-tank, headquartered in New Delhi.)
