The battle just turned interesting and fiercer in Himachal Pradesh. It’s a Rajput versus Rajput contest between the two old warhorses—83-year-old Virbhadra Singh against 73-year-old Prem Kumar Dhumal.
Nine days before the hill state was to go to polls, BJP chief Amit Shah made his biggest strategic move. Discarding the earlier practice of not declaring party’s chief ministerial candidate in advance and relying solely on the Modi factor, Shah named former chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal as the BJP's face.
Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi had declared Virbhadra Singh as party's CM candidate on October 7, thus giving the ruling party a head start. Despite facing anti-incumbency, Singh poses a tough challenge for the BJP. Being the longest serving chief minister, Virbhadra was the most recognisable face in the state. By nominating Dhumal to counter Singh, BJP sent a message that the former was the best bet for the party.
The only two earlier occasions where Shah had declared the CM candidate was during the Delhi and Assam elections. Kiran Bedi was declared candidate some 18 days ahead of the elections in 2015 in Delhi, while Sarbananda Sonowal was declared four months in advance for May 2016 elections in Assam. Bedi was badly trounced, while Sonowal gave the saffron party its first government in Assam.
What made Shah chose Dhumal over union health minister JP Nadda, or even to declare a CM candidate at the last minute? Was CM Virbhadra Singh running away with all the publicity? Or enthusiasm was missing in the BJP cadre in absence of face?
Shah started the election campaign by holding rallies in the party stronghold—lower Himachal areas of Mandi, Kangra, Una, which also have larger chunk of assembly seats, 46 out of the 68 seats. Sujanpur where Dhumal is contesting is also from this area. According to sources, it was felt that party needed a booster dose by putting a CM face.
Interestingly, in the pre-poll survey done by the CSDS (centre for the study of developing societies), it was shown that Congress was doing well in these areas. A loss in the lower Himachal would have halted the saffron surge.
Shah's decisions were also influenced by the caste calculations and the personality factor. Both Virbhadra Singh and Dhumal belong to politically dominant Rajput caste, which has the maximum vote share in the state, over 35 per cent. Both of them are the tallest leaders in the state. It’s Rajput versus Rajput clash in the state going to polls on November 9. The elections have also become a personality clash between the two most recognised faces of the state.
“Dhumal Ji is among our senior most leaders with rich administrative experience in Himachal. He will once again make a wonderful CM,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said after the announcement. During his first rally in the state after deceleration of elections, Modi had targeted Virbhadra Singh on the issue of corruption. The prime minister is expected to hold more rallies in the lower Himachal area.
Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh and Congress party's state co-incharge Ranjeet Ranjan during the launch of party's vision document for the assembly elections, in Shimla | PTI
After Rajputs, dalits form over 26 per cent of the state's population, followed by Brahmins who are nearly 20 percent. Dalits in the state have not been able to become a political force despite their huge numbers thus leaving the levers of power in the hands of the upper castes.
Out of the five chief ministers that have ruled Himachal, four have been Rajput, only one Brahmin—Shanta Kumar from the BJP. Nadda is also a Brahmin. He earlier had been health minister in the state. By choosing a Rajput, it was clear that caste factor mattered the most in the state, which has close to 98 per cent Hindu population.
The BJP is trying to woo the state's population with a promise of free pilgrimage—Chardham Yatra—for the senior citizens. The party has also promised to setup a force, drawn from ex-servicemen to tackle crime and drug related issues. This step is on the lines of anti-romeo force in Uttar Pradesh. They also promised jobs for youth and training for 50,000 youth in spoken English every year.
Congress has been traditionally doing well in the upper Himachal areas like Shimla, Sirmour, Lahaul Spiti. In its manifesto, the Congress promised jobs, and bonanza for the state employees who are often seen as the deciding factor in the elections.
The elections are being held as cold is slowly settling in the state. The season’s first snowfall would close the higher reaches and make many other areas inaccessible. By the time results are out (on December 18), many parts of Himachal will be covered with snow.
The state is considered to have developed infrastructure including good network of roads in the past a few years. But what could have been perfect ground for developing industries, especially non-polluting like the IT industry, is missing in the state.
Tourism and apple crop are now the biggest draw for the state. In other indicators like literacy and health, the state performs better. It is considered one of the peaceful states in north India until a few months back when a few cases of murder including gang-rape shook the state. These issues, too, have found resonance in the campaign.
Talking about his campaign and appeal among the electorate, CM Virbhadra Singh had told THE WEEK, “People are my strength. I entered politics in 1962 as an MP. I have toured extensively as MP, MLA, Union minister, and chief minister. I have connect with the people of the state, especially in the rural Himachal.”
The Congress seeks vote on the 'development' it has brought in. “We have managed to take development to every nook and corner of the state. We have taken a number initiatives in the field of education by opening 16,000 schools and 57 colleges in the last five years. Similarly, 230 health institutes have been opened, road connectivity was increased, unemployment allowance was given to youth, and jobs were created,” Singh added.
Dhumal, however, counters Singh on the issue of development and said corruption was the big issue. “One of the biggest issue is corruption. The second issue is law and order. It was for the first time that rape cases of minor girls were reported, murders took place.
“We promise to give a neat and clean government. Development will be the main agenda,” Dhumal had told THE WEEK.
As the state slowly moves towards the polling day, even the number of rebels that are contesting on both sides can hurt the chances of the main candidates. As the population of the state is low, victory margin is also restricted to a few thousand. Even the various camps within both parties could hurt their respective chances.
Victory for Congress could send out a message at the national level that Modi's charisma was over. For Congress, it would mean that entrusting its old warhorses can work wonders in revival of the party.
If BJP goes on to win, then it will be part of the existing precedent that every election a new government is elected since 1990. Moreover, it will help in boosting BJP's record at the national level that it has been unstoppable.
The election will be of personal interest to Modi as he, during term as BJP general secretary, was the incharge of the state. So, two states where he has worked are going to polls within a short gap.
